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Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave

Author

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  • Nikolaos Christidis

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Gareth S. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Peter A. Stott

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

Abstract

In 2003, Europe experienced a summer heatwave that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. This study uses observation and model data to show that human influence is increasing the probability of extremely hot summers in Europe, with events now expected to occur twice a decade, compared with predictions of twice a century in the early 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Christidis & Gareth S. Jones & Peter A. Stott, 2015. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 46-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_nclimate2468
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2468
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    Cited by:

    1. Leibin Wang & Robert V. Rohli & Qigen Lin & Shaofei Jin & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Guoyong Leng & Qiuhong Tang & Shengzhi Huang & Xuejun Zhang, 2016. "Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 669-681, April.
    3. Vittal Hari & Subimal Ghosh & Wei Zhang & Rohini Kumar, 2022. "Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Efi Rousi & Kai Kornhuber & Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga & Fei Luo & Dim Coumou, 2022. "Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Elizabeth G. Hanna & Peter W. Tait, 2015. "Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, July.
    6. Ali Ahmadalipour & Hamid Moradkhani & Mukesh Kumar, 2019. "Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 569-579, March.
    7. Luis M. Abadie & Marek Smid, 2020. "Climate change and heatwaves in the main coastal cities of the Basque Country," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 97(01), pages 165-189.
    8. Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi & Yong Jee Kim, 2020. "Climate Change Policy Implications of Sustainable Development Pathways in Korea at Sub-National Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Kuczyński, Tadeusz & Staszczuk, Anna, 2023. "Experimental study of the thermal behavior of PCM and heavy building envelope structures during summer in a temperate climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    10. Ben Clarke & Friederike Otto & Richard Jones, 2023. "When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Giovanni Forzieri & Luc Feyen & Simone Russo & Michalis Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Alfieri & Stephen Outten & Mirco Migliavacca & Alessandra Bianchi & Rodrigo Rojas & Alba Cid, 2016. "Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-119, July.
    12. Samuel Lüthi & Christopher Fairless & Erich M. Fischer & Noah Scovronick & Armstrong & Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Yue Leon Guo & Yuming Guo & Yasushi Honda & Veronika Huber & Jan K, 2023. "Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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