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Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia

Author

Listed:
  • Efi Rousi

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Kai Kornhuber

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Columbia University
    Columbia University)

  • Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga

    (International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling
    Universität Hamburg)

  • Fei Luo

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Dim Coumou

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

Abstract

Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. We find that double jet occurrences are particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability. The upward trend in the persistence of double jet events explains almost all of the accelerated heatwave trend in western Europe, and about 30% of it over the extended European region. Those findings provide evidence that in addition to thermodynamical drivers, atmospheric dynamical changes have contributed to the increased rate of European heatwaves, with implications for risk management and potential adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Efi Rousi & Kai Kornhuber & Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga & Fei Luo & Dim Coumou, 2022. "Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31432-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Khosravi, Fatemeh & Lowes, Richard & Ugalde-Loo, Carlos E., 2023. "Cooling is hotting up in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Paloma Yáñez Serrano & Zofia Bieńkowska & Zofia Boni & Franciszek Chwałczyk & Amirhossein Hassani, 2024. "Understanding individual heat exposure through interdisciplinary research on thermoception," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Robert Vautard & Julien Cattiaux & Tamara Happé & Jitendra Singh & Rémy Bonnet & Christophe Cassou & Dim Coumou & Fabio D’Andrea & Davide Faranda & Erich Fischer & Aurélien Ribes & Sebastian Sippel & , 2023. "Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Mi-Kyung Sung & Soon-Il An & Jongsoo Shin & Jae-Heung Park & Young-Min Yang & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Minhee Chang, 2023. "Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Fenying Cai & Caihong Liu & Dieter Gerten & Song Yang & Tuantuan Zhang & Kaiwen Li & Jürgen Kurths, 2024. "Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Lifei Lin & Chundi Hu & Bin Wang & Renguang Wu & Zeming Wu & Song Yang & Wenju Cai & Peiliang Li & Xuejun Xiong & Dake Chen, 2024. "Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Katharina Drescher & Benedikt Janzen, 2023. "When Weather Wounds Workers: The Impact of Temperature on Workplace Accidents," Working Papers 226, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    9. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & L. Bloin-Wibe & C. Gessner & V. Humphrey & F. Lehner & A. G. Pendergrass & S. Sippel & J. Zeder & R. Knutti, 2023. "Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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