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Uniformly elevated future heat stress in China driven by spatially heterogeneous water vapor changes

Author

Listed:
  • Fan Wang

    (Hong Kong Baptist University
    Harvard University)

  • Meng Gao

    (Hong Kong Baptist University
    Harvard University)

  • Cheng Liu

    (University of Science and Technology of China
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ran Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Michael B. McElroy

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

The wet bulb temperature (Tw) has gained considerable attention as a crucial indicator of heat-related health risks. Here we report south-to-north spatially heterogeneous trends of Tw in China over 1979-2018. We find that actual water vapor pressure (Ea) changes play a dominant role in determining the different trend of Tw in southern and northern China, which is attributed to the faster warming of high-latitude regions of East Asia as a response to climate change. This warming effect regulates large-scale atmospheric features and leads to extended impacts of the South Asia high (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over southern China and to suppressed moisture transport. Attribution analysis using climate model simulations confirms these findings. We further find that the entire eastern China, that accommodates 94% of the country’s population, is likely to experience widespread and uniform elevated thermal stress the end of this century. Our findings highlight the necessity for development of adaptation measures in eastern China to avoid adverse impacts of heat stress, suggesting similar implications for other regions as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Wang & Meng Gao & Cheng Liu & Ran Zhao & Michael B. McElroy, 2024. "Uniformly elevated future heat stress in China driven by spatially heterogeneous water vapor changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48895-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48895-w
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