IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v36y2022i14d10.1007_s11269-022-03313-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Subhra Sekhar Maity

    (Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur)

  • Rajib Maity

    (Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur)

Abstract

Intensification of hydrologic cycle, and consequence rise of intense short-term precipitation, are considered as the manifestations of climate change. This may lead to an alteration in Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationship that may change other hydrological processes as well. The IDF relationship also serves as a crucial information for the design of any water infrastructure. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes in IDF relationship involving hourly precipitation events between past and future climate at various return periods across India that spans over a wide range of climatology. Contrast between historical (1979–2014), using two reanalysis data, and future periods (immediate future: 2015–2039, near-future: 2040–2059 and far-future: 2060–2100) is explored along with its spatial (re-) distribution. The future simulations of precipitation are derived from three climate models, participating in 6th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), for three shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results show that almost entire Indian mainland will experience an increase (~41–44%) in the hourly precipitation intensity under the worst climate change scenario (SSP585) with a return period as low as 2 years (almost a regular incidence). Furthermore, even under a moderate climate change scenario (SSP245), almost entire Indian mainland (~82–99% of spatial extent) will be affected from a significant increase (on an average 19%) in the hourly precipitation intensity. It is true for higher return periods as well. Findings of the study are alarming for many water infrastructures. This study develops new set of IDF curves across India considering a changing climate that will be useful to set a revised design criteria for water infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03313-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03313-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03313-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03313-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronit Singh & D. S. Arya & A. K. Taxak & Z. Vojinovic, 2016. "Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Roorkee, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4603-4616, October.
    2. Lauren M. Cook & Seth McGinnis & Constantine Samaras, 2020. "The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 289-308, March.
    3. L. Mearns & S. Sain & L. Leung & M. Bukovsky & S. McGinnis & S. Biner & D. Caya & R. Arritt & W. Gutowski & E. Takle & M. Snyder & R. Jones & A. Nunes & S. Tucker & D. Herzmann & L. McDaniel & L. Sloa, 2013. "Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 965-975, October.
    4. Li, Su-Yuan & Miao, Li-Juan & Jiang, Zhi-Hong & Wang, Guo-Jie & Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj & Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Hui & Fang, Ke & He, Yu & Li, Chun, 2020. "Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 210-217.
    5. Roshan Srivastav & Andre Schardong & Slobodan Simonovic, 2014. "Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDFCurves under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2539-2562, July.
    6. Muhammad Saiful Adham Shukor & Zulkifli Yusop & Fadhillah Yusof & Zulfaqar Sa’adi & Nor Eliza Alias, 2020. "Detecting Rainfall Trend and Development of Future Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curve for the State of Kelantan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3165-3182, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fahad Alzahrani & Ousmane Seidou & Abdullah Alodah, 2022. "Assessment and Improvement of IDF Generation Algorithms Used in the IDF_CC Tool," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4591-4606, September.
    2. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Basil Ε. Psiloglou & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2403-2428, May.
    3. Shadi Arfa & Mohsen Nasseri & Hassan Tavakol-Davani, 2021. "Comparing the Effects of Different Daily and Sub-Daily Downscaling Approaches on the Response of Urban Stormwater Collection Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 505-533, January.
    4. Martín Montenegro & Daniel Mendoza & Diego Mora & Fernando García & Alex Avilés, 2022. "Extreme Rainfall Variations Under Climate Change Scenarios. Case of Study in an Andean Tropical River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5931-5944, December.
    5. Taihao Wang & Huadong Du & Zezheng Zhao & Zeming Zhou & Ana Russo & Hailing Xi & Jiping Zhang & Chengjun Zhou, 2022. "Prediction of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Air Quality during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, April.
    6. Jonathan B. Butcher & Tan Zi & Brian R. Pickard & Scott C. Job & Thomas E. Johnson & Bryan A. Groza, 2021. "Efficient statistical approach to develop intensity-duration-frequency curves for precipitation and runoff under future climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Syeda Nadia Kiran & Muhammad Farooq Iqbal & Irfan Mahmood, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1005-1033, May.
    8. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.
    9. Michael J. Scott & Don S. Daly & Mohamad I. Hejazi & G. Page Kyle & Lu Liu & Haewon C. McJeon & Anupriya Mundra & Pralit L. Patel & Jennie S. Rice & Nathalie Voisin, 2016. "Sensitivity of future U.S. Water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: a case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 233-246, May.
    10. Esther Salazar & Dorit Hammerling & Xia Wang & Bruno Sansó & Andrew O. Finley & Linda O. Mearns, 2016. "Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 55-69, September.
    11. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Harris Vangelis & Dimitris Tigkas & Anna Mamara & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Daniel Wallach & Linda O. Mearns & Alex C. Ruane & Reimund P. Rötter & Senthold Asseng, 2016. "Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 551-564, December.
    13. Zhang, Zhengrong & Li, Xuemei & Liu, Xinyu & Zhao, Kaixin, 2024. "Dynamic simulation and projection of land use change using system dynamics model in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, central Asia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    14. Marzieh Mokarram & Tam Minh Pham, 2023. "Prediction of drought-driven land use/land cover changes in the Bakhtegan Lake watershed of Iran using Markov chain cellular automata model and remote sensing data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1291-1314, March.
    15. Melissa S. Bukovsky & Linda O. Mearns, 2020. "Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 645-665, September.
    16. M. Bermúdez & L. Cea & E. Van Uytven & P. Willems & J.F. Farfán & J. Puertas, 2020. "A Robust Method to Update Local River Inundation Maps Using Global Climate Model Output and Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4345-4362, November.
    17. Keane, Robert E. & McKenzie, Donald & Falk, Donald A. & Smithwick, Erica A.H. & Miller, Carol & Kellogg, Lara-Karena B., 2015. "Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 33-47.
    18. Wan Amirul Syahmi Wan Mazlan & Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat, 2023. "Comparative Analyses on Disaggregation Methods for the Rainfall Projection," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4195-4209, August.
    19. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    20. Raúl Montes-Pajuelo & Ángel M. Rodríguez-Pérez & Raúl López & César A. Rodríguez, 2024. "Analysis of Probability Distributions for Modelling Extreme Rainfall Events and Detecting Climate Change: Insights from Mathematical and Statistical Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03313-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.