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Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Liang Qiao

    (Fudan University)

  • Zhiyan Zuo

    (Fudan University)

  • Renhe Zhang

    (Fudan University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University)

  • Dong Xiao

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Kaiwen Zhang

    (Fudan University
    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

Abstract

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Qiao & Zhiyan Zuo & Renhe Zhang & Shilong Piao & Dong Xiao & Kaiwen Zhang, 2023. "Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40641-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40641-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Kirsten L. Findell & Trevor F. Keenan & Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine, 2022. "Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Fei Ji & Zhaohua Wu & Jianping Huang & Eric P. Chassignet, 2014. "Evolution of land surface air temperature trend," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 462-466, June.
    4. Zhenzhong Zeng & Shilong Piao & Laurent Z. X. Li & Liming Zhou & Philippe Ciais & Tao Wang & Yue Li & Xu Lian & Eric F. Wood & Pierre Friedlingstein & Jiafu Mao & Lyndon D. Estes & Ranga B. Myneni & S, 2017. "Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 432-436, June.
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