IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-33112-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Author

Listed:
  • Raphaëlle Klitting

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Liana E. Kafetzopoulou

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven
    Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine)

  • Wim Thiery

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Gytis Dudas

    (Vilnius University)

  • Sophie Gryseels

    (University of Antwerp
    Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences)

  • Anjali Kotamarthi

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Bram Vrancken

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven)

  • Karthik Gangavarapu

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Mambu Momoh

    (Eastern Technical University of Sierra Leone
    Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • John Demby Sandi

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • Augustine Goba

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • Foday Alhasan

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • Donald S. Grant

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation
    University of Sierra Leone)

  • Sylvanus Okogbenin

    (Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital
    Ambrose Alli University)

  • Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo

    (Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital)

  • Robert F. Garry

    (Tulane University, School of Medicine
    Zalgen Labs, LCC
    Global Virus Network (GVN))

  • Allison R. Smither

    (Tulane University, School of Medicine)

  • Mark Zeller

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Matthias G. Pauthner

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Michelle McGraw

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Laura D. Hughes

    (Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Sophie Duraffour

    (Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine
    Partner site Hamburg–Lübeck–Borstel–Riems)

  • Stephan Günther

    (Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine
    Partner site Hamburg–Lübeck–Borstel–Riems)

  • Marc A. Suchard

    (University of California
    University of California
    University of California)

  • Philippe Lemey

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven)

  • Kristian G. Andersen

    (The Scripps Research Institute
    Scripps Research Translational Institute)

  • Simon Dellicour

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven
    Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaëlle Klitting & Liana E. Kafetzopoulou & Wim Thiery & Gytis Dudas & Sophie Gryseels & Anjali Kotamarthi & Bram Vrancken & Karthik Gangavarapu & Mambu Momoh & John Demby Sandi & Augustine Goba & F, 2022. "Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33112-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33112-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Dellicour & Sebastian Lequime & Bram Vrancken & Mandev S. Gill & Paul Bastide & Karthik Gangavarapu & Nathaniel L. Matteson & Yi Tan & Louis Plessis & Alexander A. Fisher & Martha I. Nelson & Ma, 2020. "Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Almut Arneth, 2015. "Uncertain future for vegetation cover," Nature, Nature, vol. 524(7563), pages 44-45, August.
    3. Michael D Karcher & Julia A Palacios & Trevor Bedford & Marc A Suchard & Vladimir N Minin, 2016. "Quantifying and Mitigating the Effect of Preferential Sampling on Phylodynamic Inference," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Simon Dellicour & Guy Baele & Gytis Dudas & Nuno R. Faria & Oliver G. Pybus & Marc A. Suchard & Andrew Rambaut & Philippe Lemey, 2018. "Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Dim Coumou & Alexander Robinson & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2013. "Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 771-782, June.
    6. Theodore C. Pierson & Michael S. Diamond, 2018. "The emergence of Zika virus and its new clinical syndromes," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 573-581, August.
    7. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    8. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evan A. Eskew & Brian H. Bird & Bruno M. Ghersi & James Bangura & Andrew J. Basinski & Emmanuel Amara & Mohamed A. Bah & Marilyn C. Kanu & Osman T. Kanu & Edwin G. Lavalie & Victor Lungay & Willie Rob, 2024. "Reservoir displacement by an invasive rodent reduces Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    2. Oguz Turkozan & Vasiliki Almpanidou & Can Yılmaz & Antonios D. Mazaris, 2021. "Extreme thermal conditions in sea turtle nests jeopardize reproductive output," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    4. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    5. Kwan-Young Oh & Moung-Jin Lee & Seong-Woo Jeon, 2017. "Development of the Korean Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (VESTAP)—Centered on Health Vulnerability to Heat Waves," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-15, June.
    6. R Varela & L Rodríguez-Díaz & M deCastro, 2020. "Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    8. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    10. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    11. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    12. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    13. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    15. Weixing Ma & Tinglin Huang & Xuan Li & Zizhen Zhou & Yang Li & Kang Zeng, 2015. "The Effects of Storm Runoff on Water Quality and the Coping Strategy of a Deep Canyon-Shaped Source Water Reservoir in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Cotto, Olivier & Chevin, Luis-Miguel, 2020. "Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-128.
    18. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    19. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    20. Mohamed Kefi & Binaya Kumar Mishra & Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi, 2020. "Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2461-2487, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33112-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.