IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v132y2015i4p501-515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Jascha Lehmann
  • Dim Coumou
  • Katja Frieler

Abstract

In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981–2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:501-515
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seung-Ki Min & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2011. "Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 378-381, February.
    2. Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl & F. Hugo Lambert & Nathan P. Gillett & Susan Solomon & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa, 2007. "Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7152), pages 461-465, July.
    3. Dim Coumou & Alexander Robinson & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2013. "Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 771-782, June.
    4. Kevin Trenberth, 2012. "Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 283-290, November.
    5. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andre D. L. Zanchetta & Paulin Coulibaly, 2022. "Hybrid Surrogate Model for Timely Prediction of Flash Flood Inundation Maps Caused by Rapid River Overflow," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Zeng, Lijun & Guo, Lingyi & Jiang, Liwen, 2024. "A bi-level multi-objective optimization model for inter-provincial carbon emissions transfer tax on electricity production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    3. Zhiqi Yang & Gabriele Villarini, 2020. "On the role of increased CO2 concentrations in enhancing the temporal clustering of heavy precipitation events across Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1455-1472, October.
    4. Yuan-Chih Su & Bo-Jein Kuo, 2023. "Risk Assessment of Rice Damage Due to Heavy Rain in Taiwan," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    6. Dominik Traxl & Niklas Boers & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen, 2021. "The role of cyclonic activity in tropical temperature-rainfall scaling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Clyde E. Goulden & Jerry Mead & Richard Horwitz & Munhtuya Goulden & Banzragch Nandintsetseg & Sabrina McCormick & Bazartseren Boldgiv & Peter S. Petraitis, 2016. "Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 281-295, May.
    8. Michael Berlemann & Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Precipitation and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 7258, CESifo.
    9. Isnaini Isnaini & Yudhistira Nugraha & Niranjan Baisakh & Nono Carsono, 2023. "Toward Food Security in 2050: Gene Pyramiding for Climate-Smart Rice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-35, September.
    10. Shadi Arfa & Mohsen Nasseri & Hassan Tavakol-Davani, 2021. "Comparing the Effects of Different Daily and Sub-Daily Downscaling Approaches on the Response of Urban Stormwater Collection Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 505-533, January.
    11. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Jin-Soo Kim & Wen Zhou & Shangfeng Chen & Peng Hu & Xiaoqing Lan, 2023. "Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    12. Haoyang Du & Chen Zhou & Haoqing Tang & Xiaolong Jin & Dengshuai Chen & Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li, 2021. "Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Antonio Menéndez Suárez-Inclán & Cristina Allende-Prieto & Jorge Roces-García & Juan P. Rodríguez-Sánchez & Luis A. Sañudo-Fontaneda & Carlos Rey-Mahía & Felipe P. Álvarez-Rabanal, 2022. "Development of a Multicriteria Scheme for the Identification of Strategic Areas for SUDS Implementation: A Case Study from Gijón, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    15. Jorge Sepúlveda-Velásquez & Pablo Tapia-Griñen & Boris Pastén-Henríquez, 2023. "Financial effects of natural disasters: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2691-2710, September.
    16. Berlemann, Michael & Eurich, Marina, 2021. "Natural hazard risk and life satisfaction – Empirical evidence for hurricanes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    17. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Daniel Amoak & Isaac Luginaah & Gordon McBean, 2022. "Climate Change, Food Security, and Health: Harnessing Agroecology to Build Climate-Resilient Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, October.
    19. Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, 2021. "Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, December.
    20. Haixin Liu & Anbing Zhang & Tao Jiang & Haitao Lv & Xinxia Liu & Hefeng Wang, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region (BTHMR) Based on the Modified TVDI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, December.
    21. Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Christian Unterberger, 2018. "How Flood Damages to Public Infrastructure Affect Municipal Budget Indicators," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 5-20, April.
    23. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    24. Demetrios E. Tsesmelis & Christos A. Karavitis & Panagiotis D. Oikonomou & Stavros Alexandris & Constantinos Kosmas, 2018. "Assessment of the Vulnerability to Drought and Desertification Characteristics Using the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) and the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI)," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    2. Margot Hill Clarvis & Erin Bohensky & Masaru Yarime, 2015. "Can Resilience Thinking Inform Resilience Investments? Learning from Resilience Principles for Disaster Risk Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Gholamreza Roshan & Stefan W. Grab & Mohammad Saeed Najafi, 2020. "The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 365-399, May.
    4. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    5. Stuart Capstick & Nicholas Pidgeon, 2014. "Public perception of cold weather events as evidence for and against climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 695-708, February.
    6. Yaolong Liu & Guorui Feng & Ye Xue & Huaming Zhang & Ruoguang Wang, 2015. "Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2167-2183, February.
    7. Aerzuna Abulimiti & Yongqiang Liu & Lianmei Yang & Abuduwaili Abulikemu & Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Shuai Yuan & Reifat Enwer & Zhiyi Li & Abidan Abuduaini & Zulipina Kadier, 2024. "Urbanization Effect on Changes in Extreme Climate Events in Urumqi, China, from 1976 to 2018," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    9. Chunxiang Li & Tianbao Zhao & Kairan Ying, 2017. "Quantifying the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to climate changes over arid-semiarid areas during 1946–2005," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 505-517, October.
    10. Goyal, Manish Kumar & Gupta, Anil Kumar & Jha, Srinidhi & Rakkasagi, Shivukumar & Jain, Vijay, 2022. "Climate change impact on precipitation extremes over Indian cities: Non-stationary analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. R Varela & L Rodríguez-Díaz & M deCastro, 2020. "Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh & Pankaj Kumar, 2014. "Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 273-286, March.
    13. Raphaëlle Klitting & Liana E. Kafetzopoulou & Wim Thiery & Gytis Dudas & Sophie Gryseels & Anjali Kotamarthi & Bram Vrancken & Karthik Gangavarapu & Mambu Momoh & John Demby Sandi & Augustine Goba & F, 2022. "Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Sarah Ann Wheeler & Céline Nauges & Alec Zuo, 2021. "How stable are Australian farmers’ climate change risk perceptions? New evidence of the feedback loop between risk perceptions and behaviour," Post-Print hal-04670841, HAL.
    15. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    16. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    17. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Weixing Ma & Tinglin Huang & Xuan Li & Zizhen Zhou & Yang Li & Kang Zeng, 2015. "The Effects of Storm Runoff on Water Quality and the Coping Strategy of a Deep Canyon-Shaped Source Water Reservoir in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Cotto, Olivier & Chevin, Luis-Miguel, 2020. "Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-128.
    20. Brennan, Timothy J., 2011. "Energy Efficiency Policy: Surveying the Puzzles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-27, Resources for the Future.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:501-515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.