IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/thpobi/v134y2020icp119-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment

Author

Listed:
  • Cotto, Olivier
  • Chevin, Luis-Miguel

Abstract

Most natural environments vary stochastically and are temporally autocorrelated. Previous theory investigating the effects of environmental autocorrelation on evolution mostly assumed that total fitness resulted from a single selection episode. Yet organisms are likely to experience selection repeatedly along their life, in response to possibly different environmental states. We model the evolution of a quantitative trait in organisms with non-overlapping generations undergoing several episodes of selection in a randomly fluctuating and autocorrelated environment. We show that the evolutionary dynamics depends not directly on fluctuations of the environment, but instead on those of an effective phenotypic optimum that integrates the effects of all selection episodes within each generation. The variance and autocorrelation of the integrated optimum shape the variance and predictability of selection, with substantial qualitative and quantitative deviations from previous predictions considering a single selection episode per generation. We also investigate the consequence of multiple selection episodes per generation on population load. In particular, we identify a new load resulting from within-generation fluctuating selection, generating the death of individuals without significance for the evolutionary dynamics. Our study emphasizes how taking into account fluctuating selection within lifetime unravels new properties of evolutionary dynamics, with crucial implications notably with respect to responses to global changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotto, Olivier & Chevin, Luis-Miguel, 2020. "Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:134:y:2020:i:c:p:119-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2020.03.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580920300228
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tpb.2020.03.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    2. Irja I. Ratikainen & Hanna Kokko, 2019. "The coevolution of lifespan and reversible plasticity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:journl:hal-04670841 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    3. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    4. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Malik, Ihtisham A. & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Alam, Md Samsul, 2023. "Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    7. Weixing Ma & Tinglin Huang & Xuan Li & Zizhen Zhou & Yang Li & Kang Zeng, 2015. "The Effects of Storm Runoff on Water Quality and the Coping Strategy of a Deep Canyon-Shaped Source Water Reservoir in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    8. van der Linden, Sander, 2014. "On the relationship between personal experience, affect and risk perception: the case of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57689, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Vélez-Espino, Luis A. & Koops, Marten A., 2012. "Capacity for increase, compensatory reserves, and catastrophes as determinants of minimum viable population in freshwater fishes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 319-326.
    10. Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    11. Fernando Goulart & Frédéric Mertens, 2017. "The Late mangos- Is There Any Doubt Humans Are Inducing Climate Change?," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 1(7), pages 2022-2024, December.
    12. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Adam Choryński & Janusz Olejnik & Hans J. Schellnhuber & Marek Urbaniak & Klaudia Ziemblińska, 2023. "Climate Change Science and Policy—A Guided Tour across the Space of Attitudes and Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Maaz Gardezi & J. Gordon Arbuckle, 2019. "Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 17-34, January.
    14. Isabel Dorado-Liñán & Blanca Ayarzagüena & Flurin Babst & Guobao Xu & Luis Gil & Giovanna Battipaglia & Allan Buras & Vojtěch Čada & J. Julio Camarero & Liam Cavin & Hugues Claessens & Igor Drobyshev , 2022. "Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Kristie S. Gutierrez & Catherine E. LePrevost, 2016. "Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    16. Maëlle Lefeuvre & ChuChu Lu & Carlos A Botero & Joanna Rutkowska, 2023. "Variable ambient temperature promotes song learning and production in zebra finches," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 34(3), pages 408-417.
    17. Samuel A. Markolf & Kelly Klima & Terrence L. Wong, 2015. "Adaptation frameworks used by US decision-makers: a literature review," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 427-436, December.
    18. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
    19. Mercedes Campi & Marco Duenas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2019. "How do countries specialize in food production? A complex-network analysis of the global agricultural product space," LEM Papers Series 2019/37, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde, 2019. "Spatial market efficiency of grain markets in Russia: Implications of high trade costs for export potential," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21, pages 60-68.
    21. EKPO, C. G. and HARUNA, I. O., 2022. "Assessment of Awareness of Climate Change Among Subsistent Farmers in Gwagwalada Area Council, Abuja," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(7), pages 275-282, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:134:y:2020:i:c:p:119-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/intelligence .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.