IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v118y2013i3p771-782.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Dim Coumou
  • Alexander Robinson
  • Stefan Rahmstorf

Abstract

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Dim Coumou & Alexander Robinson & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2013. "Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 771-782, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:771-782
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noah Diffenbaugh & Martin Scherer, 2011. "Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 615-624, August.
    2. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    3. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Hidalgo García & Julián Arco Díaz & Adelaida Martín Martín & Emilio Gómez Cobos, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Thermal Effects Caused by Heat Waves through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, September.
    2. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Elizabeth G. Hanna & Peter W. Tait, 2015. "Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, July.
    4. Raphaëlle Klitting & Liana E. Kafetzopoulou & Wim Thiery & Gytis Dudas & Sophie Gryseels & Anjali Kotamarthi & Bram Vrancken & Karthik Gangavarapu & Mambu Momoh & John Demby Sandi & Augustine Goba & F, 2022. "Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    6. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    7. Aashis Joshi & Emile Chappin & Neelke Doorn, 2021. "Does Distributive Justice Improve Welfare Outcomes in Climate Adaptation? An Exploration Using an Agent-Based Model of a Stylized Social–Environmental System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-23, November.
    8. Léo Régnier & Maxim Dolgushev & Olivier Bénichou, 2023. "Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Julia Kurek & Justyna Martyniuk-Pęczek, 2021. "Exploring DAD and ADD Methods for Dealing with Urban Heat Island Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Goyal, Manish Kumar & Gupta, Anil Kumar & Jha, Srinidhi & Rakkasagi, Shivukumar & Jain, Vijay, 2022. "Climate change impact on precipitation extremes over Indian cities: Non-stationary analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. R Varela & L Rodríguez-Díaz & M deCastro, 2020. "Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Jorge Sepúlveda-Velásquez & Pablo Tapia-Griñen & Boris Pastén-Henríquez, 2023. "Financial effects of natural disasters: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2691-2710, September.
    13. Guo, Ying & Lu, Xiaoling & Zhang, Jiquan & Li, Kaiwei & Wang, Rui & Rong, Guangzhi & Liu, Xingpeng & Tong, Zhijun, 2022. "Joint analysis of drought and heat events during maize (Zea mays L.) growth periods using copula and cloud models: A case study of Songliao Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    15. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    16. Daniel Maposa & Anna M. Seimela & Caston Sigauke & James J. Cochran, 2021. "Modelling temperature extremes in the Limpopo province: bivariate time-varying threshold excess approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2227-2246, July.
    17. Wang, Linyuan & Zhao, Lin & Mao, Guozhu & Zuo, Jian & Du, Huibin, 2017. "Way to accomplish low carbon development transformation: A bibliometric analysis during 1995–2014," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 57-69.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & C. J. White & L. V. Alexander & D. Argüeso & G. Boschat & T. Cowan & J. P. Evans & M. Ekström & E. C. J. Oliver & A. Phatak & A. Purich, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 101-114, November.
    2. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    3. Ramón E. López & Vinod Thomas & Pablo Troncoso, 2015. "Climate Change and Natural Disasters," Working Papers wp414, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    4. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Dimitra Founda & George Katavoutas & Fragiskos Pierros & Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, 2022. "The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Friederike Otto & Suzanne Rosier & Myles Allen & Neil Massey & Cameron Rye & Jara Quintana, 2015. "Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 77-91, September.
    7. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
    8. repec:hal:journl:hal-04670841 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    10. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    11. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    12. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    14. Neethu C & K V Ramesh, 2023. "Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-26, October.
    15. Weixing Ma & Tinglin Huang & Xuan Li & Zizhen Zhou & Yang Li & Kang Zeng, 2015. "The Effects of Storm Runoff on Water Quality and the Coping Strategy of a Deep Canyon-Shaped Source Water Reservoir in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Cotto, Olivier & Chevin, Luis-Miguel, 2020. "Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-128.
    17. Baarsch, Florent & Granadillos, Jessie R. & Hare, William & Knaus, Maria & Krapp, Mario & Schaeffer, Michiel & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2020. "The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Adam Choryński & Janusz Olejnik & Hans J. Schellnhuber & Marek Urbaniak & Klaudia Ziemblińska, 2023. "Climate Change Science and Policy—A Guided Tour across the Space of Attitudes and Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    20. Maaz Gardezi & J. Gordon Arbuckle, 2019. "Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 17-34, January.
    21. Kristie S. Gutierrez & Catherine E. LePrevost, 2016. "Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:771-782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.