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Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Kornhuber

    (Columbia University
    University of Oxford
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science)

  • Dim Coumou

    (VU University Amsterdam
    Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Elisabeth Vogel

    (The University of Melbourne)

  • Corey Lesk

    (Columbia University, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades)

  • Jonathan F. Donges

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
    Stockholm University)

  • Jascha Lehmann

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Columbia University, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades)

Abstract

In an interconnected world, simultaneous extreme weather events in distant regions could potentially impose high-end risks for societies1,2. In the mid-latitudes, circumglobal Rossby waves are associated with a strongly meandering jet stream and might cause simultaneous heatwaves and floods across the northern hemisphere3–6. For example, in the summer of 2018, several heat and rainfall extremes occurred near-simultaneously7. Here we show that Rossby waves with wavenumbers 5 and 7 have a preferred phase position and constitute recurrent atmospheric circulation patterns in summer. Those patterns can induce simultaneous heat extremes in specific regions: Central North America, Eastern Europe and Eastern Asia for wave 5, and Western Central North America, Western Europe and Western Asia for wave 7. The probability of simultaneous heat extremes in these regions increases by a factor of up to 20 for the most severe heat events when either of these two waves dominate the circulation. Two or more weeks per summer spent in the wave-5 or wave-7 regime are associated with 4% reductions in crop production when averaged across the affected regions, with regional decreases of up to 11%. As these regions are important for global food production, the identified teleconnections have the potential to fuel multiple harvest failures, posing risks to global food security8.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Kornhuber & Dim Coumou & Elisabeth Vogel & Corey Lesk & Jonathan F. Donges & Jascha Lehmann & Radley M. Horton, 2020. "Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 48-53, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0637-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Efi Rousi & Kai Kornhuber & Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga & Fei Luo & Dim Coumou, 2022. "Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Kurt Heil & Christian Klöpfer & Kurt-Jürgen Hülsbergen & Urs Schmidhalter, 2023. "Description of Meteorological Indices Presented Based on Long-Term Yields of Winter Wheat in Southern Germany," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    4. Fadly Syah Arsad & Rozita Hod & Norfazilah Ahmad & Mazni Baharom & Fredolin Tangang, 2022. "The Malay-Version Knowledge, Risk Perception, Attitude and Practice Questionnaire on Heatwaves: Development and Construct Validation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Mehrabi, Zia & Delzeit, Ruth & Ignaciuk, Adriana & Levers, Christian & Braich, Ginni & Bajaj, Kushank & Amo-Aidoo, Araba & Anderson, Weston & Balgah, Roland A. & Benton, Tim G. & Chari, Martin M. & El, 2022. "Research priorities for global food security under extreme events," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(7), pages 756-766.
    6. Lewis, Janet M & Reynolds, Matthew, 2022. "The Future of Climate Resilience in Wheat," SocArXiv hvd4e, Center for Open Science.
    7. Aled Jones & Sarah Bridle & Katherine Denby & Riaz Bhunnoo & Daniel Morton & Lucy Stanbrough & Barnaby Coupe & Vanessa Pilley & Tim Benton & Pete Falloon & Tom K. Matthews & Saher Hasnain & John S. He, 2023. "Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.
    8. Serge Savary & Sonia Akter & Conny Almekinders & Jody Harris & Lise Korsten & Reimund Rötter & Stephen Waddington & Derrill Watson, 2020. "Mapping disruption and resilience mechanisms in food systems," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 695-717, August.
    9. Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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