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The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoqin Yan

    (The Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University)

  • Rong Zhang

    (NOAA/GFDL)

  • Thomas R. Knutson

    (NOAA/GFDL)

Abstract

Observed Atlantic major hurricane frequency has exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability since the 1940s. However, the cause of this variability is debated. Using observations and a coupled earth system model (GFDL-ESM2G), here we show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is associated with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) inferred from ocean observations. Directly observed North Atlantic sulfate aerosol optical depth has not increased (but shows a modest decline) over this period, suggesting the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is not likely due to recent changes in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Instead, we find coherent multidecadal variations involving the inferred AMOC and Atlantic major hurricane frequency, along with indices of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and inverted vertical wind shear. Our results provide evidence for an important role of the AMOC in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoqin Yan & Rong Zhang & Thomas R. Knutson, 2017. "The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-01377-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01377-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanfeng Wang & Ping Huang, 2022. "Potential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Suzana J. Camargo & James P. Kossin & Kevin J. Tory & Michael F. Wehner & Johnny C. L. Chan & Philip J. Klotzbach & Andrew J. Dowdy & Samuel S. Bell & Hamish A. Ra, 2022. "Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 655-661, July.
    3. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Christopher Landsea & Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Thomas Knutson, 2021. "Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Thomas R. Knutson & Joseph J. Sirutis & Morris A. Bender & Robert E. Tuleya & Benjamin A. Schenkel, 2022. "Dynamical downscaling projections of late twenty-first-century U.S. landfalling hurricane activity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-23, April.

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