IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-34934-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Author

Listed:
  • Tongtong Xu

    (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado)

  • Matthew Newman

    (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado)

  • Antonietta Capotondi

    (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado)

  • Samantha Stevenson

    (University of California)

  • Emanuele Di Lorenzo

    (Brown University)

  • Michael A. Alexander

    (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tongtong Xu & Matthew Newman & Antonietta Capotondi & Samantha Stevenson & Emanuele Di Lorenzo & Michael A. Alexander, 2022. "An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34934-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34934-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34934-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-34934-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dan A. Smale & Thomas Wernberg & Eric C. J. Oliver & Mads Thomsen & Ben P. Harvey & Sandra C. Straub & Michael T. Burrows & Lisa V. Alexander & Jessica A. Benthuysen & Markus G. Donat & Ming Feng & Al, 2019. "Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 306-312, April.
    2. Michael G. Jacox, 2019. "Marine heatwaves in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 571(7766), pages 485-487, July.
    3. Thomas L. Frölicher & Charlotte Laufkötter, 2018. "Emerging risks from marine heat waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-4, December.
    4. Richard Seager & Mark Cane & Naomi Henderson & Dong-Eun Lee & Ryan Abernathey & Honghai Zhang, 2019. "Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 517-522, July.
    5. Amy Solomon & Matthew Newman, 2012. "Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 691-699, September.
    6. Lixin Wu & Wenju Cai & Liping Zhang & Hisashi Nakamura & Axel Timmermann & Terry Joyce & Michael J. McPhaden & Michael Alexander & Bo Qiu & Martin Visbeck & Ping Chang & Benjamin Giese, 2012. "Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 161-166, March.
    7. Thomas L. Frölicher & Erich M. Fischer & Nicolas Gruber, 2018. "Marine heatwaves under global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7718), pages 360-364, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friedrich A. Burger & Jens Terhaar & Thomas L. Frölicher, 2022. "Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Alexandre Mignot & Karina Schuckmann & Peter Landschützer & Florent Gasparin & Simon Gennip & Coralie Perruche & Julien Lamouroux & Tristan Amm, 2022. "Decrease in air-sea CO2 fluxes caused by persistent marine heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Mehrabi, Zia & Delzeit, Ruth & Ignaciuk, Adriana & Levers, Christian & Braich, Ginni & Bajaj, Kushank & Amo-Aidoo, Araba & Anderson, Weston & Balgah, Roland A. & Benton, Tim G. & Chari, Martin M. & El, 2022. "Research priorities for global food security under extreme events," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(7), pages 756-766.
    4. Ce Bian & Zhao Jing & Hong Wang & Lixin Wu & Zhaohui Chen & Bolan Gan & Haiyuan Yang, 2023. "Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Ying Zhang & Yan Du & Ming Feng & Alistair J. Hobday, 2023. "Vertical structures of marine heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi & Amanda E. Bates & Giovanni Strona & Fabio Bulleri & Barbara Horta e Costa & Graham J. Edgar & Bernat Hereu & Dan C. Reed & Rick D. Stuart-Smith & Neville S. Barrett & David, 2024. "Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Kathryn E. Smith & Margot Aubin & Michael T. Burrows & Karen Filbee-Dexter & Alistair J. Hobday & Neil J. Holbrook & Nathan G. King & Pippa J. Moore & Alex Sen Gupta & Mads Thomsen & Thomas Wernberg &, 2024. "Global impacts of marine heatwaves on coastal foundation species," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Shengpeng Wang & Zhao Jing & Lixin Wu & Shantong Sun & Qihua Peng & Hong Wang & Yu Zhang & Jian Shi, 2023. "Southern hemisphere eastern boundary upwelling systems emerging as future marine heatwave hotspots under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Jia Zheng & Ning Guo & Yuxiang Huang & Xiang Guo & Andreas Wagner, 2024. "High temperature delays and low temperature accelerates evolution of a new protein phenotype," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Lina M. Rasmusson & Aekkaraj Nualla-ong & Tarawit Wutiruk & Mats Björk & Martin Gullström & Pimchanok Buapet, 2021. "Sensitivity of Photosynthesis to Warming in Two Similar Species of the Aquatic Angiosperm Ruppia from Tropical and Temperate Habitats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Sauterey, Boris & Gland, Guillaume Le & Cermeño, Pedro & Aumont, Olivier & Lévy, Marina & Vallina, Sergio M., 2023. "Phytoplankton adaptive resilience to climate change collapses in case of extreme events – A modeling study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    14. Hailin Wang & Bo Qiu & Hanrui Liu & Zhengguang Zhang, 2023. "Doubling of surface oceanic meridional heat transport by non-symmetry of mesoscale eddies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Zhang, Jing & Lei, Xiaohui & Chen, Bin & Song, Yongyu, 2019. "Analysis of blue water footprint of hydropower considering allocation coefficients for multi-purpose reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Suzana J. Camargo & James P. Kossin & Kevin J. Tory & Michael F. Wehner & Johnny C. L. Chan & Philip J. Klotzbach & Andrew J. Dowdy & Samuel S. Bell & Hamish A. Ra, 2022. "Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 655-661, July.
    17. Guillem Chust & Ernesto Villarino & Matthew McLean & Nova Mieszkowska & Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi & Fabio Bulleri & Chiara Ravaglioli & Angel Borja & Iñigo Muxika & José A. Fernandes-Salvador & Leire , 2024. "Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Min Xu & Zunlei Liu & Yihe Wang & Yan Jin & Xinwei Yuan & Hui Zhang & Xiaojing Song & Takayoshi Otaki & Linlin Yang & Jiahua Cheng, 2022. "Larval Spatiotemporal Distribution of Six Fish Species: Implications for Sustainable Fisheries Management in the East China Sea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-13, November.
    19. Frank A. La Sorte & Alison Johnston & Toby R. Ault, 2021. "Global trends in the frequency and duration of temperature extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-14, May.
    20. Christine M. Albano & Maureen I. McCarthy & Michael D. Dettinger & Stephanie A. McAfee, 2021. "Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-25, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34934-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.