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Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Author

Listed:
  • Shinto Roose

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    McGill University)

  • R. S. Ajayamohan

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    Institute of Applied Technology)

  • Pallav Ray

    (Florida Institute of Technology)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (University of California San Diego)

  • C. T. Sabeerali

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    India Meteorological Department)

  • M. Mohapatra

    (India Meteorological Department)

  • S. Taraphdar

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • K. Mohanakumar

    (Cochin University of Science and Technology)

  • M. Rajeevan

    (Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinto Roose & R. S. Ajayamohan & Pallav Ray & Shang-Ping Xie & C. T. Sabeerali & M. Mohapatra & S. Taraphdar & K. Mohanakumar & M. Rajeevan, 2023. "Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40642-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40642-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiroyuki Murakami & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Seth Underwood, 2017. "Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 885-889, December.
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    3. Suryachandra Rao & Ashish Dhakate & Subodh Saha & Somnath Mahapatra & Hemantkumar Chaudhari & Samir Pokhrel & Sobhan Sahu, 2012. "Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 709-719, February.
    4. Yanluan Lin & Ming Zhao & Minghua Zhang, 2015. "Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, May.
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