IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i15p6132-d391985.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Simulator to Determine the Evolution of Disparities in Food Consumption between Socio-Economic Groups: A Brazilian Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Gerber Machado

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Julia Tomei

    (Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK)

  • Adam Hawkes

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Celma de Oliveira Ribeiro

    (Production Engineering, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo 05508-010, Brazil)

Abstract

Food is a fundamental right that deserves attention but is usually dealt with from the supply side in aggregated models that use macroeconomic variables to forecast the demand and the required supply. This study challenges this paradigm by developing a simulator to analyze food consumption from the demand side and estimate the evolution of disparity in food consumption over time with respect to region, sex, ethnicity, education, and income. This novel approach was applied to Brazil using household expenditure surveys to feed serial neural networks. Results show that the ‘poorer’ north and northeast of Brazil encounter the lowest consumption of food and are therefore the most food vulnerable regions. This trend continues to 2040. The ‘richer’ south and southeast regions have higher food consumption, which varies according to sex, ethnicity, education, and income. Brazil has contrasting issues with some groups having considerably higher food consumption, while other groups still have less than the threshold for healthy consumption. Now, the country not only has to deal with the food access by the most vulnerable due to the latest economic declines but also to deal with excess consumption, the so-called “double burden of malnutrition”.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Gerber Machado & Julia Tomei & Adam Hawkes & Celma de Oliveira Ribeiro, 2020. "A Simulator to Determine the Evolution of Disparities in Food Consumption between Socio-Economic Groups: A Brazilian Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6132-:d:391985
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/15/6132/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/15/6132/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manuel Alejandro Cardenete & Ana-Isabel Guerra & Ferran Sancho, 2017. "An Overview of General Equilibrium Theory," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Applied General Equilibrium, edition 2, chapter 2, pages 5-33, Springer.
    2. Janice Ramos de Sousa & Rita de Cássia C.A. Akutsu & Renata Puppin Zandonadi & Raquel B. A. Botelho, 2020. "Breakfast Characterization and Consumption by Low-Income Brazilians: Food Identity and Regional Food," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85, Elsevier.
    4. Maurice Mutisya & Moses W. Ngware & Caroline W. Kabiru & Ngianga-bakwin Kandala, 2016. "The effect of education on household food security in two informal urban settlements in Kenya: a longitudinal analysis," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 743-756, August.
    5. David Magaña-Lemus & Ariun Ishdorj & C. Parr Rosson & Jorge Lara-Álvarez, 2016. "Determinants of household food insecurity in Mexico," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Bosmans, Kristof & Cowell, Frank A., 2010. "The class of absolute decomposable inequality measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 154-156, December.
    7. Manuel Alejandro Cardenete & Ana-Isabel Guerra & Ferran Sancho, 2017. "Applied General Equilibrium," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-54893-6, June.
    8. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski & Anne Biewald & Isabelle Weindl & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2015. "Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    9. Maggie Dickinson, 2020. "Food frights: COVID-19 and the specter of hunger," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 37(3), pages 589-590, September.
    10. Coelho, Alexandre Braganca & Aguiar, Danilo Rolim Dias de & Fernandes, Elaine Aparecida, 2009. "Padrão de consumo de alimentos no Brasil," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 47(2), pages 1-28, June.
    11. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M., 2014. "World Food Futures to 2050," Briefs 197625, University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy.
    12. Linh Vu Hoang, 2009. "Estimation of Food Demand from Household Survey Data in Vietnam," Working Papers 12, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    13. Sileshi, Million & Kadigi, Reuben & Mutabazi, Khamaldin & Sieber, Stefan, 2019. "Analysis of households' vulnerability to food insecurity and its influencing factors in east Hararghe, Ethiopia," 2019 Sixth International Conference, September 23-26, 2019, Abuja, Nigeria 295896, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    14. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), October.
    15. Broussard, Nzinga H., 2019. "What explains gender differences in food insecurity?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 180-194.
    16. David Marshall & John Dawson & Laura Nisbet, 2018. "Food access in remote rural places: consumer accounts of food shopping," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 133-144, January.
    17. Maitra, Chandana & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2015. "Poverty–Food Security Nexus: Evidence from a Survey of Urban Slum Dwellers in Kolkata," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 308-325.
    18. Thomas R. Cook & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2017. "Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks," Research Working Paper RWP 17-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    19. Million Sileshi & Reuben Kadigi & Khamaldin Mutabazi & Stefan Sieber, 2019. "Analysis of households’ vulnerability to food insecurity and its influencing factors in East Hararghe, Ethiopia," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Smith, Michael D. & Rabbitt, Matthew P. & Coleman- Jensen, Alisha, 2017. "Who are the World’s Food Insecure? New Evidence from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 402-412.
    21. Luis Miguel Fonseca & José Pedro Domingues & Alina Mihaela Dima, 2020. "Mapping the Sustainable Development Goals Relationships," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, April.
    22. Brijesh Mainali & Jyrki Luukkanen & Semida Silveira & Jari Kaivo-oja, 2018. "Evaluating Synergies and Trade-Offs among Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Explorative Analyses of Development Paths in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-25, March.
    23. Pino-Mejías, Rafael & Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis & Rubio-Bellido, Carlos & Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A., 2018. "Artificial neural networks and linear regression prediction models for social housing allocation: Fuel Poverty Potential Risk Index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 627-641.
    24. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    25. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    26. Davide Rasella & Sanjay Basu & Thomas Hone & Romulo Paes-Sousa & Carlos Octávio Ocké-Reis & Christopher Millett, 2018. "Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Hanna Dudek & Joanna Myszkowska-Ryciak & Agnieszka Wojewódzka-Wiewiórska, 2021. "Profiles of Food Insecurity: Similarities and Differences across Selected CEE Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2014. "The International Agricultural Prospects Model: Assessing Consumption and Production Futures Through 2050 (version 2.1)," Staff Papers 182192, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    4. Wang, Hongzhang & Ren, Hao & Han, Kun & Li, Geng & Zhang, Lihua & Zhao, Yali & Liu, Yuee & He, Qijin & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhao, Bin & Ren, Baizhao & Liu, Peng, 2023. "Improving the net energy and energy utilization efficiency of maize production systems in the North China Plain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    5. Walter P. Falcon & Rosamond L. Naylor & Nikhil D. Shankar, 2022. "Rethinking Global Food Demand for 2050," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 921-957, December.
    6. Sunjin Ahn & Travis A. Smith & F. Bailey Norwood, 2020. "Can Internet Surveys Mimic Food Insecurity Rates Published by the US Government?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 187-204, June.
    7. Anderson Jock R. & Birner Regina & Nagarajan Latha & Naseem Anwar & Pray Carl E., 2021. "Private Agricultural R&D: Do the Poor Benefit?," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 3-14, May.
    8. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Chantal Le Mouël & Anna Birgit Milford & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski, 2019. "Drivers of meat consumption," Post-Print hal-02175593, HAL.
    10. Sayed Alim Samim & Zhiquan Hu & Sebastian Stepien & Sayed Younus Amini & Ramin Rayee & Kunyu Niu & George Mgendi, 2021. "Food Insecurity and Related Factors among Farming Families in Takhar Region, Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Mouchili, Eric, 2024. "Does corruption starve Africa? The mitigating effect of political distribution of power," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 171-197.
    12. Patrice Guillotreau & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 29-46.
    13. Chai, Yuan & Pardey, Philip G. & Chan-Kang, Connie & Huang, Jikun & Lee, Kyuseon & Dong, Wanlu, 2019. "Passing the food and agricultural R&D buck? The United States and China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    15. Sana Khushi & Sajid Rashid Ahmad & Ather Ashraf & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "Spatially analyzing food consumption inequalities using GIS with disaggregated data from Punjab, Pakistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(6), pages 1283-1298, December.
    16. Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2015. "Rethinking yield gaps," Staff Papers 201093, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    17. Ioannis Manikas & Balan Sundarakani & Foivos Anastasiadis & Beshir Ali, 2022. "A Framework for Food Security via Resilient Agri-Food Supply Chains: The Case of UAE," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, May.
    18. Joshua Berning & Caroline Norris & Rebecca Cleary, 2023. "Food insecurity among immigrant populations in the United States," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(1), pages 41-57, February.
    19. Lana Awada & Peter W. B. Phillips, 2021. "The distribution of returns from land efficiency improvement in multistage production systems," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 73-92, March.
    20. Agnieszka Poczta-Wajda & Agnieszka Sapa & Sebastian Stępień & Michał Borychowski, 2020. "Food Insecurity among Small-Scale Farmers in Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6132-:d:391985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.