Inside or Outside? The Impact Factors of Zoning–Land Use Mismatch

A land-use plan is a core policy tool to curb excessive non-agriculturalization of agricultural land. The effect of plan implementation can affect sustainable land use and regional development. Empirical studies have shown that land development commonly and frequently fails to conform to land-use plans. However, neither qualitative nor quantitative studies are conducted to comprehensively explore the reasons for zoning–land use mismatch. To help bridge this gap, this study explored to what extent a plan has been implemented and what factors have affected zoning–land use mismatch. A new deviation discriminant framework of planning implementation was presented. Moreover, the logistics model was applied to discuss which factors substantially affect the zoning–land use mismatch. The plan implementation results were divided into the conformed, exceeded and unused areas. The general land-use plan failed in its spatial control over rural settlements and other built-up lands, with both more than 90% of the newly added construction land beyond zoning. In addition, the newly added construction land of rural settlements, other built-up lands, and transportation lands all exceeded the quota control. Furthermore, the physical factors of distance from the river, the elevation, the slope and the level, and the social-economic factors of the gross domestic product, the fiscal revenue, the fixed assets investments, and the rank of town have prominent effects on zoning–land use mismatch. Enhancing the flexibility of the land-use plan and strengthening the relationship between planning quotas and spatial zoning in the future are necessary to promote the effect of plan implementation.