The general land-use planning in China: an uncertainty perspective

Uncertainty is a common feature of the present era. The plethora of uncertainties prompted frequent adjustment in the process of general land-use planning in China and, therefore, severely undermines the effectiveness of the entire land-use plan. Previous research mainly considered a macroanalysis of the causes, types, and treatments of the uncertainties, while research through case studies focusing on uncertainties are very rare. We analyzed the role of uncertainty in the general land-use planning schemes of the Jiangjin district of Chongqing Municipality, China, using the methods of comparative analysis and comprehensive induction. We discovered that the adjustments of the general land-use planning schemes consist of changes in land-use quota and layout, especially those of construction land. It can be found that the major internal uncertainties stem from the uncertainty of government action, base period, and technical specifications, while the major external uncertainties principally come from policy variation and economic development. The research results suggest that we need to further refine the land-use planning theory, optimize the land-use planning scheme, and strengthen the land-use planning legislation in order to decrease or eliminate the uncertainties so as to ensure the effectiveness of the general land-use plan.