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Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation

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  • Jungwoo Shin

    (Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Kyung Hee University, 1732 Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17104, Korea)

  • Taehoon Lim

    (Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 301 East Dean Keeton Street, C1700, Austin, TX 78712, USA)

  • Moo Yeon Kim

    (Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 301 East Dean Keeton Street, C1700, Austin, TX 78712, USA)

  • Jae Young Choi

    (Graduate School of Technology & Innovation Management, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, Korea)

Abstract

Introduced autonomous and connected vehicles equipped with emerging technologies are expected to change the automotive market. In this study, using stated preference (SP) data collected from choice experiments conducted in Korea with a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV), we analyzed how the advent of next-generation of vehicles with advanced vehicle technologies would affect consumer vehicle choices and usage patterns. Additionally, ex-ante market simulations and market segmentation analyses were conducted to provide specific management strategies for next-generation vehicles. The results showed that consumer preference structures of conventional and alternative fuel types primarily differed depending on whether they were drivers or non-drivers. Additionally, although the introduction of electric vehicles to the automobile market is expected to negatively affect the choice probability and mileage of other vehicles, it could have a positive influence on the probability of purchasing an existing conventional vehicle if advanced vehicle technologies are available.

Suggested Citation

  • Jungwoo Shin & Taehoon Lim & Moo Yeon Kim & Jae Young Choi, 2018. "Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:607-:d:133616
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    1. Tapia, Rodrigo J. & de Jong, Gerard & Larranaga, Ana M. & Bettella Cybis, Helena B., 2020. "Application of MDCEV to infrastructure planning in regional freight transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 255-271.
    2. Kim, Ju-Hee & Kim, Hyo-Jin & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2019. "Willingness to pay for fuel-cell electric vehicles in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 497-502.
    3. Dongnyok Shim & Jungwoo Shin & So‐Yoon Kwak, 2018. "Modelling the consumer decision‐making process to identify key drivers and bottlenecks in the adoption of environmentally friendly products," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1409-1421, December.
    4. Elena Magaril & Romen Magaril & Hussain H. Al-Kayiem & Elena Skvortsova & Ilya Anisimov & Elena Cristina Rada, 2019. "Investigation on the Possibility of Increasing the Environmental Safety and Fuel Efficiency of Vehicles by Means of Gasoline Nano-Additive," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-10, April.
    5. Isabel C. Gil-García & Mª Socorro García-Cascales & Habib Dagher & Angel Molina-García, 2021. "Electric Vehicle and Renewable Energy Sources: Motor Fusion in the Energy Transition from a Multi-Indicator Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Ziyue Wang & Juan Zhang & Huiju Zhao, 2020. "The Selection of Green Technology Innovations under Dual-Credit Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.

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