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Application of MDCEV to infrastructure planning in regional freight transport

Author

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  • Tapia, Rodrigo J.
  • de Jong, Gerard
  • Larranaga, Ana M.
  • Bettella Cybis, Helena B.

Abstract

The main objective of the paper is to develop a model capable of evaluating the societal impact of rail infrastructure investment in Argentina, using a Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Model (MDCEV) estimated on Stated and Revealed preference data. The decision modelled is the mode and port choice at a planning level, where multiple alternatives can be chosen simultaneously. The relevant variables were the Free Alongside Ship (FAS) price, freight transport cost, travel time and lead time, including non-observed heterogeneity in the modelling. As a consequence, the willingness to pay measures that are used for the cost benefit analysis become non-deterministic. To include this effect simulated WTP measurements were included and compared to a deterministic and risk based approach. Two projects were tested and both showed that the deterministic approach gives higher Benefit/Cost ratio. This paper raises the concern that if non-observed heterogeneity is not considered in project evaluation it may provide misleading results and potentially lead to wrong investment priorities for the public sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Tapia, Rodrigo J. & de Jong, Gerard & Larranaga, Ana M. & Bettella Cybis, Helena B., 2020. "Application of MDCEV to infrastructure planning in regional freight transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 255-271.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:133:y:2020:i:c:p:255-271
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.01.016
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