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Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model

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  • Xerxes T. Seposo

    (Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan)

  • Tran Ngoc Dang

    (Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan
    Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam)

  • Yasushi Honda

    (Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan)

Abstract

The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Xerxes T. Seposo & Tran Ngoc Dang & Yasushi Honda, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:6:p:6842-6857:d:51197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Lester Chua & Miguel Manuel Dorotan & Jemar Anne Sigua & Rafael Deo Estanislao & Masahiro Hashizume & Miguel Antonio Salazar, 2019. "Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.

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