IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i4p1574-d754472.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Wang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Limao Wang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Shuai Zhong

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Ning Xiang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Qiushi Qu

    (School of Economics, Hebei University of Geosciences, Shijiazhuang 050031, China)

Abstract

The low-carbon transition of the power system is essential for China to achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality. However, China could suffer power shortages due to radical policies in some extreme cases. The gap between power demand and supply from March 2021 to November 2021 ranged between 5.2 billion kW·h and 24.6 billion kW·h. The main reason for the power shortage was over-reliance on renewable energy and insufficient coal power supply for the power system. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric system needs to be explored with more flexibility for power security. This study applied a modified LEAP model and carried out a forecast analysis of thermal power generation and installed capacity in 2025 and 2030 under normal and extreme weather scenarios. The results suggested that: the installed capacity of thermal power will need to account for about 44.6–46.1% of power generation in 2025 and 37.4–39.3% in 2030, with the assumption of power shortages caused by the instability and uncertainty of renewable power. In the future, China needs to pursue the development of diversified energy sources and enhance the power supply security capability while strengthening the development and utilization of renewable energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Wang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Ning Xiang & Qiushi Qu, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:4:p:1574-:d:754472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/4/1574/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/4/1574/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Walasai, Gordhan Das & Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Sahin, Hasret, 2018. "Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 512-526.
    3. Wang, Zheng & Zhu, Yanshuo & Zhu, Yongbin & Shi, Ying, 2016. "Energy structure change and carbon emission trends in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 369-377.
    4. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    5. Martin Drechsler & Jonas Egerer & Martin Lange & Frank Masurowski & Jürgen Meyerhoff & Malte Oehlmann, 2017. "Efficient and equitable spatial allocation of renewable power plants at the country scale," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 1-9, September.
    6. Aleh Cherp & Vadim Vinichenko & Jale Tosun & Joel A. Gordon & Jessica Jewell, 2021. "National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 742-754, July.
    7. Peng Ou & Ruting Huang & Xin Yao, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Power Shortage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Ryna Yiyun Cui & Nathan Hultman & Diyang Cui & Haewon McJeon & Sha Yu & Morgan R. Edwards & Arijit Sen & Kaihui Song & Christina Bowman & Leon Clarke & Junjie Kang & Jiehong Lou & Fuqiang Yang & Jiaha, 2021. "A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Julianne DeAngelo & Inês Azevedo & John Bistline & Leon Clarke & Gunnar Luderer & Edward Byers & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Maryam Arbabzadeh & Ramteen Sioshansi & Jeremiah X. Johnson & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2019. "The role of energy storage in deep decarbonization of electricity production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Rahman, Md. Mizanur & Paatero, Jukka V. & Lahdelma, Risto & A. Wahid, Mazlan, 2016. "Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 237-244.
    12. Nema, Pragya & Nema, R.K. & Rangnekar, Saroj, 2009. "A current and future state of art development of hybrid energy system using wind and PV-solar: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 2096-2103, October.
    13. Heleen L. Soest & Michel G. J. Elzen & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Chonghui & Bai, Chen & Su, Weihua & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "The centralised data envelopment analysis model integrated with cost information and utility theory for power price setting under carbon peak strategy at the firm-level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    2. Zhang, Chonghui & Li, Xiangwen & Sun, Yunfei & Chen, Ji & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2023. "Policy modeling consistency analysis during energy crises: Evidence from China's coal power policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Ayman Elshkaki & Lei Shen, 2022. "Energy Transition towards Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-5, July.
    4. Peishu Chen & Yu He & Kai Yue & Guochang Fang, 2023. "Can Carbon Trading Promote Low-Carbon Transformation of High Energy Consumption Enterprises?—The Case of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Yujing Liu & Ruoyun Du & Dongxiao Niu, 2022. "Forecast of Coal Demand in Shanxi Province Based on GA—LSSVM under Multiple Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Yue Ma & Xiaodong Chu, 2022. "Optimizing Low-Carbon Pathway of China’s Power Supply Structure Using Model Predictive Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Yu Hu & Yuanying Chi & Wenbing Zhou & Zhengzao Wang & Yongke Yuan & Ruoyang Li, 2022. "Research on Energy Structure Optimization and Carbon Emission Reduction Path in Beijing under the Dual Carbon Target," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Hongyan & Gao, Shuaizhi & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Role of digitalization in energy storage technological innovation: Evidence from China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Cuenca, Juan J. & Daly, Hannah E. & Hayes, Barry P., 2023. "Sharing the grid: The key to equitable access for small-scale energy generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    3. Raza, Muhammad Amir & Khatri, Krishan Lal & Hussain, Arslan, 2022. "Transition from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 19-29.
    4. Nakamoto, Yuya & Eguchi, Shogo, 2024. "How do seasonal and technical factors affect generation efficiency of photovoltaic power plants?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    5. Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Zhang, Boling & Wang, Qian & Wang, Sixia & Tong, Ruipeng, 2023. "Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    7. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Longhui Li & Yue Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Kaicun Wang & Can Wang & Tao Wang & Linwang Yuan & Kangxin An & Chenghu Zhou & Guonian Lü, 2022. "Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Abdullah, Fahad Bin & Iqbal, Rizwan & Hyder, Syed Irfan & Jawaid, Mohammad, 2020. "Energy security indicators for Pakistan: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Liu, Zefeng & Wang, Chaoyang & Fan, Jianlin & Liu, Ming & Xing, Yong & Yan, Junjie, 2024. "Enhancing the flexibility and stability of coal-fired power plants by optimizing control schemes of throttling high-pressure extraction steam," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Bai, Caiquan & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Yuxiang, 2023. "Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    12. Hussain, Arif & Perwez, Usama & Ullah, Kafait & Kim, Chul-Hwan & Asghar, Nosheen, 2021. "Long-term scenario pathways to assess the potential of best available technologies and cost reduction of avoided carbon emissions in an existing 100% renewable regional power system: A case study of G," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Ruixue Liu & Guannan He & Xizhe Wang & Dharik Mallapragada & Hongbo Zhao & Yang Shao-Horn & Benben Jiang, 2024. "A cross-scale framework for evaluating flexibility values of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Ma, Huan & Sun, Qinghan & Chen, Lei & Chen, Qun & Zhao, Tian & He, Kelun & Xu, Fei & Min, Yong & Wang, Shunjiang & Zhou, Guiping, 2023. "Cogeneration transition for energy system decarbonization: From basic to flexible and complementary multi-energy sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    15. Dongsheng Zheng & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Yue Qin & Yang Liu & Ruochong Xu & Jin Yang & Xizhe Yan & Guannan Geng & Huizheng Che & Qiang Zhang, 2024. "Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Hidayatno, Akhmad & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2022. "Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Aneeque A. Mir & Mohammed Alghassab & Kafait Ullah & Zafar A. Khan & Yuehong Lu & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "A Review of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Low and Middle Income Countries: The Demand Determinants and Horizons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-35, July.
    18. Temitope Adeyemi-Kayode & Sanjay Misra & Hope Orovwode & Anthony Adoghe, 2022. "Modeling the Next Decade of Energy Sustainability: A Case of a Developing Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
    19. Zhu, Hongtao & Cao, Shuang & Su, Zimeng & Zhuang, Yang, 2024. "China's future energy vision: Multi-scenario simulation based on energy consumption structure under dual carbon targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    20. Ding, Zhixiong & Wu, Wei & Huang, Si-Min & Huang, Hongyu & Bai, Yu & He, Zhaohong, 2023. "A novel compression-assisted energy storage heat transformer for low-grade renewable energy utilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:4:p:1574-:d:754472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.