IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v169y2022ics0301421522004050.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model

Author

Listed:
  • Reyseliani, Nadhilah
  • Hidayatno, Akhmad
  • Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu

Abstract

This study examines the transition of Indonesia's electricity system 2020–2050 to achieve Paris Agreement target using TIMES model. Three scenarios, including Reference Case, Current Policy, and Paris Agreement are reviewed. Reference case system will be 77% dominated by unabated coal power plant, and Current Policy will only reduce its share by 10% in 2050. Furthermore, the emissions from these scenarios are still half of estimated electricity emission in NDC due to different demand level between the policy target and current level indicating the ambition gap. Achieving well below 2°C long-term target, 50% of RE and 40% of IGCC-CCS in electricity production are needed. There will be 48% increase in investment compare to reference case and constant electricity production to current level. Uncertainty of carbon budget will not shift the emission peak or penetration of solar PV utility-scale, but will greatly affect the deployment time, as soon as 2030 or as later as 2040, and capacity of IGCC-CCS and the presence of BECCS up to 2050. Reform of Indonesia's electricity system needs to be carried out because of changes in technology and investment directions, the need to accelerate technological readiness, coupled with the current condition of market structure and electricity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Hidayatno, Akhmad & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2022. "Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:169:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004050
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522004050
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113184?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2021. "Pathway towards 100% renewable energy in Indonesia power system by 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 305-321.
    2. Handayani, Kamia & Anugrah, Pinto & Goembira, Fadjar & Overland, Indra & Suryadi, Beni & Swandaru, Akbar, 2022. "Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    3. Yann Robiou du Pont & M. Louise Jeffery & Johannes Gütschow & Joeri Rogelj & Peter Christoff & Malte Meinshausen, 2017. "Correction: Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 153-153, February.
    4. den Elzen, Michel & Kuramochi, Takeshi & Höhne, Niklas & Cantzler, Jasmin & Esmeijer, Kendall & Fekete, Hanna & Fransen, Taryn & Keramidas, Kimon & Roelfsema, Mark & Sha, Fu & van Soest, Heleen & Vand, 2019. "Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 238-250.
    5. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
    6. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A. & Ferrão, Paulo, 2013. "High-resolution modeling framework for planning electricity systems with high penetration of renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 215-223.
    7. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    8. van Zuijlen, Bas & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim & van der Schrier, Gerard & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Cost-optimal reliable power generation in a deep decarbonisation future," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Michalena, Evanthie & Kouloumpis, Viktor & Hills, Jeremy M., 2018. "Challenges for Pacific Small Island Developing States in achieving their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 508-518.
    10. Julianne DeAngelo & Inês Azevedo & John Bistline & Leon Clarke & Gunnar Luderer & Edward Byers & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Matthew Winning & James Price & Paul Ekins & Steve Pye & James Glynn & Jim Watson & Christophe McGlade, 2019. "Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 947-958, September.
    12. Sani, L. & Khatiwada, D. & Harahap, F. & Silveira, S., 2021. "Decarbonization pathways for the power sector in Sumatra, Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Chen, Siyuan & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2020. "Low carbon transition pathway of power sector with high penetration of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Yann Robiou du Pont & M. Louise Jeffery & Johannes Gütschow & Joeri Rogelj & Peter Christoff & Malte Meinshausen, 2017. "Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 38-43, January.
    15. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    16. Heleen L. Soest & Michel G. J. Elzen & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Laura van Soest, Heleen & Schaeffer, Roberto & Reedman, Luke & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Macaluso, Nick & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & De Vita, Alessia & Sha, Fu & Qimin, Chai & Kej, 2021. "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    18. Mark Roelfsema & Heleen L. Soest & Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Christoph Bertram & Michel Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Gabriela Iacobuta & Volker Krey & Elmar Kriegler & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Ria, 2020. "Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Gerbelová, Hana & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Vasconcelos, Jorge & Martins, Victor, 2014. "Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mardones, Cristian & Alvial, Esteban, 2024. "Evaluation of a carbon tax in Costa Rica linking a demand system focused on energy goods and an input-output model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    2. Doan, Nguyen & Doan, Huong & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Binh Quang, 2024. "From Kyoto to Paris and beyond: A deep dive into the green shift," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Ma, Meiyan & Tang, Xu & Shi, Changning & Wang, Min & Li, Xinying & Luo, Pengfei & Zhang, Baosheng, 2023. "Roadmap towards clean and low-carbon heating to 2060: The case of northern urban region in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Purohit, Pallav & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Li-Jing, 2022. "The cost-benefit comparisons of China's and India's NDCs based on carbon marginal abatement cost curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Gerbelová, Hana & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Vasconcelos, Jorge & Martins, Victor, 2014. "Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-112.
    4. Michel G. J. Elzen & Ioannis Dafnomilis & Nicklas Forsell & Panagiotis Fragkos & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Niklas Höhne & Takeshi Kuramochi & Leonardo Nascimento & Mark Roelfsema & Heleen Soest & Frank Sp, 2022. "Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-29, August.
    5. Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2021. "Pathway towards 100% renewable energy in Indonesia power system by 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 305-321.
    6. Das, Anjana & Halder, Arideep & Mazumder, Rahul & Saini, Vinay Kumar & Parikh, Jyoti & Parikh, Kirit S., 2018. "Bangladesh power supply scenarios on renewables and electricity import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 651-667.
    7. Ettore Bompard & Daniele Grosso & Tao Huang & Francesco Profumo & Xianzhang Lei & Duo Li, 2018. "World Decarbonization through Global Electricity Interconnections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-29, July.
    8. Salman, Muhammad & Long, Xingle & Wang, Guimei & Zha, Donglan, 2022. "Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Liu, Xi & Du, Huibin & Brown, Marilyn A. & Zuo, Jian & Zhang, Ning & Rong, Qian & Mao, Guozhu, 2018. "Low-carbon technology diffusion in the decarbonization of the power sector: Policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 344-356.
    10. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A. & Ferrão, Paulo, 2013. "High-resolution modeling framework for planning electricity systems with high penetration of renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 215-223.
    11. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    12. Ajay Gambhir & Shivika Mittal & Robin D. Lamboll & Neil Grant & Dan Bernie & Laila Gohar & Adam Hawkes & Alexandre Köberle & Joeri Rogelj & Jason A. Lowe, 2023. "Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Pfenninger, Stefan, 2017. "Dealing with multiple decades of hourly wind and PV time series in energy models: A comparison of methods to reduce time resolution and the planning implications of inter-annual variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Welsch, Manuel & Deane, Paul & Howells, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn & Bazilian, Morgan & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2014. "Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models – A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 600-615.
    15. Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2019. "Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 666-676.
    16. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    17. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    18. Matar, Walid & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Rioux, Bertrand, 2015. "Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 558-569.
    19. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    20. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:169:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522004050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.