IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v301y2024ics036054422401524x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's future energy vision: Multi-scenario simulation based on energy consumption structure under dual carbon targets

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Hongtao
  • Cao, Shuang
  • Su, Zimeng
  • Zhuang, Yang

Abstract

In the face of global environmental problems, China has advanced a “dual-carbon" target, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will be more than 25 % in 2030 and more than 80 % in 2060. Considering this goal as the starting point, this study applies the system dynamics method and combines different types of sectors and energy consumption structures to model China's energy consumption system. Through multi-scenario simulations of different energy consumption structures, the study finds that: (1) the growth rate of energy consumption and energy consumption structure are the main factors affecting carbon emissions; (2) industrial carbon emissions follow the changes in total carbon emissions, and the industry is the most important and challenging sector for solving the problem of carbon emissions; (3) under the premise of optimizing the energy consumption structure, China can achieve peak carbon in 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060; (4) under the inertia of social development and energy structure, the energy demand of the tertiary sector is expanding, and natural gas is an unquestionable choice for China as a transitional energy source.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Hongtao & Cao, Shuang & Su, Zimeng & Zhuang, Yang, 2024. "China's future energy vision: Multi-scenario simulation based on energy consumption structure under dual carbon targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:301:y:2024:i:c:s036054422401524x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131751
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422401524X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131751?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Sun, Haiyan & Chen, Fushan, 2022. "The impact of green finance on China's regional energy consumption structure based on system GMM," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Wang, Zheng & Zhu, Yanshuo & Zhu, Yongbin & Shi, Ying, 2016. "Energy structure change and carbon emission trends in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 369-377.
    4. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Appiah, Michael & Taden, John & Amoasi, Richard & Gyamfi, Bright Akwasi, 2023. "Transitioning to clean energy: Assessing the impact of renewable energy, bio-capacity and access to clean fuel on carbon emissions in OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    5. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    6. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    7. Zhidong Li & Dora Marinova & Xiumei Guo & Yuan Gao, 2015. "Evaluating Pillar Industry’s Transformation Capability: A Case Study of Two Chinese Steel-Based Cities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Hu, Yuan & Peng, Ling & Li, Xiang & Yao, Xiaojing & Lin, Hui & Chi, Tianhe, 2018. "A novel evolution tree for analyzing the global energy consumption structure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1177-1187.
    9. Yang, Zhenbing & Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Miao, Zhuang, 2018. "Improvement pathway of energy consumption structure in China's industrial sector: From the perspective of directed technical change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 166-176.
    10. Zhang, Qi & Gu, Baihe & Zhang, Haiying & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "Emission reduction mode of China's provincial transportation sector: Based on “Energy+” carbon efficiency evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    11. Sun, Jiasen & Li, Guo & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "Optimizing China’s energy consumption structure under energy and carbon constraints," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-72.
    12. Zeng, Sheng & Su, Bin & Zhang, Minglong & Gao, Yuan & Liu, Jun & Luo, Song & Tao, Qingmei, 2021. "Analysis and forecast of China's energy consumption structure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Rao, Congjun & Zhang, Yue & Wen, Jianghui & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2023. "Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    14. Wang, Qiang, 2014. "Effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-339.
    15. Green, Fergus & Stern, Nicholas, 2016. "China’s changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65483, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Bilen, K. & Ozyurt, O. & BakIrcI, K. & KarslI, S. & Erdogan, S. & YIlmaz, M. & ComaklI, O., 2008. "Energy production, consumption, and environmental pollution for sustainable development: A case study in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1529-1561, August.
    17. Lingguang Li & Weixin Yang, 2018. "Total Factor Efficiency Study on China’s Industrial Coal Input and Wastewater Control with Dual Target Variables," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Zhang, Na & Lior, Noam & Jin, Hongguang, 2011. "The energy situation and its sustainable development strategy in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3639-3649.
    19. Jiankun, He & Zhiwei, Yu & Da, Zhang, 2012. "China's strategy for energy development and climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 7-13.
    20. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    21. Li, Ke & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "How to promote energy efficiency through technological progress in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 812-821.
    22. Ye, Li & Yang, Deling & Dang, Yaoguo & Wang, Junjie, 2022. "An enhanced multivariable dynamic time-delay discrete grey forecasting model for predicting China's carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    23. Zhang, Ming & Song, Yan & Li, Peng & Li, Huanan, 2016. "Study on affecting factors of residential energy consumption in urban and rural Jiangsu," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 330-337.
    24. Qiu, Shuo & Lei, Tian & Wu, Jiangtao & Bi, Shengshan, 2021. "Energy demand and supply planning of China through 2060," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    25. Xu, Guangyue & Schwarz, Peter & Yang, Hualiu, 2020. "Adjusting energy consumption structure to achieve China's CO2 emissions peak," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    26. Yang, Chuxiao & Hao, Yu & Irfan, Muhammad, 2021. "Energy consumption structural adjustment and carbon neutrality in the post-COVID-19 era," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 442-453.
    27. Ding, Qi & Xiao, Xinping & Kong, Dekai, 2023. "Estimating energy-related CO2 emissions using a novel multivariable fuzzy grey model with time-delay and interaction effect characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    28. Liu, Wei & Li, Hong, 2011. "Improving energy consumption structure: A comprehensive assessment of fossil energy subsidies reform in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4134-4143, July.
    29. Zhang, Jing & Deng, Shihuai & Shen, Fei & Yang, Xinyao & Liu, Guodong & Guo, Hang & Li, Yuanwei & Hong, Xiao & Zhang, Yanzong & Peng, Hong & Zhang, Xiaohong & Li, Li & Wang, Yingjun, 2011. "Modeling the relationship between energy consumption and economy development in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4227-4234.
    30. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhun Qu & Chong Jiang & Yixin Wang & Ran Wang & Ying Zhao & Suchang Yang, 2024. "China’s Photovoltaic Development and Its Spillover Effects on Carbon Footprint at Cross-Regional Scale: Insights from the Largest Photovoltaic Industry in Northwest Arid Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-24, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Liangpeng & Xu, Chengzhen & Zhu, Qingyuan & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Multiple energy price distortions and improvement of potential energy consumption structure in the energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    2. Lijing Zhang & Shuke Fu & Jiali Tian & Jiachao Peng, 2022. "A Review of Energy Industry Chain and Energy Supply Chain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Zhang, Dongyang & Zhao, Mengjiao & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2024. "Technological innovation and its influence on energy risk management: Unpacking China’s energy consumption structure optimisation amidst climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Yong Bian & Zhi Yu & Xuelan Zeng & Jingchun Feng & Chao He, 2018. "Achieving China’s Long-Term Carbon Emission Abatement Targets: A Perspective from Regional Disparity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Xu, Guangyue & Schwarz, Peter & Yang, Hualiu, 2020. "Adjusting energy consumption structure to achieve China's CO2 emissions peak," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Meng Yang & Yisheng Liu & Jinzhao Tian & Feiyu Cheng & Pengbo Song, 2022. "Dynamic Evolution and Regional Disparity in Carbon Emission Intensity in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Iwona Bąk & Katarzyna Cheba, 2022. "Green Transformation: Applying Statistical Data Analysis to a Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Olimpia Neagu & Mircea Constantin Teodoru, 2019. "The Relationship between Economic Complexity, Energy Consumption Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emission: Heterogeneous Panel Evidence from the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
    9. Shi, Changfeng & Zhi, Jiaqi & Yao, Xiao & Zhang, Hong & Yu, Yue & Zeng, Qingshun & Li, Luji & Zhang, Yuxi, 2023. "How can China achieve the 2030 carbon peak goal—a crossover analysis based on low-carbon economics and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    10. Ning Xiang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Chen Zheng & Bo Wang & Qiushi Qu, 2021. "How Does the World View China’s Carbon Policy? A Sentiment Analysis on Twitter Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    11. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Do we really understand the development of China's new energy industry?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 733-745.
    13. Wang, Qiang & Kwan, Mei-Po & Zhou, Kan & Fan, Jie & Wang, Yafei & Zhan, Dongsheng, 2019. "Impacts of residential energy consumption on the health burden of household air pollution: Evidence from 135 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 284-295.
    14. Zeng, Sheng & Su, Bin & Zhang, Minglong & Gao, Yuan & Liu, Jun & Luo, Song & Tao, Qingmei, 2021. "Analysis and forecast of China's energy consumption structure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Xu, Guangyue & Dong, Haoyun & Xu, Zhenci & Bhattarai, Nishan, 2022. "China can reach carbon neutrality before 2050 by improving economic development quality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    16. Xie, Pinjie & Li, Han & Sun, Feihu & Tian, Huizhen, 2021. "Analysis of the dependence of economic growth on electric power input and its influencing factors in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Li, Xiaoyan, 2020. "Design of energy-conservation and emission-reduction plans of China’s industry: Evidence from three typical industries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    19. Li, Dezhi & Huang, Guanying & Zhu, Shiyao & Chen, Long & Wang, Jiangbo, 2021. "How to peak carbon emissions of provincial construction industry? Scenario analysis of Jiangsu Province," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Guo, Xuepeng & Pang, Jun, 2023. "Analysis of provincial CO2 emission peaking in China: Insights from production and consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:301:y:2024:i:c:s036054422401524x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.