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A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

Author

Listed:
  • Ryna Yiyun Cui

    (University of Maryland)

  • Nathan Hultman

    (University of Maryland)

  • Diyang Cui

    (University of Maryland
    University of Maryland)

  • Haewon McJeon

    (University of Maryland
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Sha Yu

    (University of Maryland
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Morgan R. Edwards

    (University of Maryland
    University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Arijit Sen

    (University of Maryland)

  • Kaihui Song

    (University of Maryland
    University of Maryland)

  • Christina Bowman

    (University of Maryland)

  • Leon Clarke

    (University of Maryland)

  • Junjie Kang

    (Natural Resources Defense Council)

  • Jiehong Lou

    (University of Maryland)

  • Fuqiang Yang

    (Natural Resources Defense Council)

  • Jiahai Yuan

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Weirong Zhang

    (North China Electric Power University)

  • Mengye Zhu

    (University of Maryland
    Tsinghua University)

Abstract

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryna Yiyun Cui & Nathan Hultman & Diyang Cui & Haewon McJeon & Sha Yu & Morgan R. Edwards & Arijit Sen & Kaihui Song & Christina Bowman & Leon Clarke & Junjie Kang & Jiehong Lou & Fuqiang Yang & Jiaha, 2021. "A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21786-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0
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