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Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Tong

    (Tsinghua University
    University of California
    Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • David J. Farnham

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Lei Duan

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Qiang Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Nathan S. Lewis

    (Carnegie Institution for Science
    California Institute of Technology)

  • Ken Caldeira

    (Carnegie Institution for Science
    4110 Carillon Pt.)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (University of California
    Carnegie Institution for Science
    University of California)

Abstract

If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand may challenge system reliability. Using 39 years of hourly reanalysis data (1980–2018), we analyze the ability of solar and wind resources to meet electricity demand in 42 countries, varying the hypothetical scale and mix of renewable generation as well as energy storage capacity. Assuming perfect transmission and annual generation equal to annual demand, but no energy storage, we find the most reliable renewable electricity systems are wind-heavy and satisfy countries’ electricity demand in 72–91% of hours (83–94% by adding 12 h of storage). Yet even in systems which meet >90% of demand, hundreds of hours of unmet demand may occur annually. Our analysis helps quantify the power, energy, and utilization rates of additional energy storage, demand management, or curtailment, as well as the benefits of regional aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26355-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26355-z
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    5. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    12. Kyere, Francis & Dongying, Sun & Bampoe, Gertrude Dotse & Kumah, Naana Yaa Gyamea & Asante, Dennis, 2024. "Decoding the shift: Assessing household energy transition and unravelling the reasons for resistance or adoption of solar photovoltaic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Dongsheng Zheng & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Yue Qin & Yang Liu & Ruochong Xu & Jin Yang & Xizhe Yan & Guannan Geng & Huizheng Che & Qiang Zhang, 2024. "Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Kim, Jeongdong & Qi, Meng & Park, Jinwoo & Moon, Il, 2023. "Revealing the impact of renewable uncertainty on grid-assisted power-to-X: A data-driven reliability-based design optimization approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    15. Frauke Wiese & Nicolas Taillard & Emile Balembois & Benjamin Best & Stephane Bourgeois & José Campos & Luisa Cordroch & Mathilde Djelali & Alexandre Gabert & Adrien Jacob & Elliott Johnson & Sébastien, 2024. "The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe," Post-Print hal-04747574, HAL.
    16. Yang, Xinrong & Jiang, Xin & Liang, Shijing & Qin, Yingzuo & Ye, Fan & Ye, Bin & Xu, Jiayu & He, Xinyue & Wu, Jie & Dong, Tianyun & Cai, Xitian & Xu, Rongrong & Zeng, Zhenzhong, 2024. "Spatiotemporal variation of power law exponent on the use of wind energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
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    18. Li, Jianglong & Ho, Mun Sing, 2024. "End-year China wind power installation rush reduces electric system reliability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    21. Zhang, Hongyan & Gao, Shuaizhi & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Role of digitalization in energy storage technological innovation: Evidence from China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    22. Jianxiao Wang & Liudong Chen & Zhenfei Tan & Ershun Du & Nian Liu & Jing Ma & Mingyang Sun & Canbing Li & Jie Song & Xi Lu & Chin-Woo Tan & Guannan He, 2023. "Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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