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Estimates of the Decarbonization Potential of Alternative Fuels for Shipping as a Function of Vessel Type, Cargo, and Voyage

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  • Li Chin Law

    (Cambridge Centre for Advanced Research and Education in Singapore (CARES), CREATE Tower, 1 Create Way, Singapore 138602, Singapore
    School of Chemical Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Nibong Tebal 14300, Penang, Malaysia)

  • Epaminondas Mastorakos

    (Cambridge Centre for Advanced Research and Education in Singapore (CARES), CREATE Tower, 1 Create Way, Singapore 138602, Singapore
    Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK)

  • Stephen Evans

    (Cambridge Centre for Advanced Research and Education in Singapore (CARES), CREATE Tower, 1 Create Way, Singapore 138602, Singapore
    Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK)

Abstract

Fuel transition can decarbonize shipping and help meet IMO 2050 goals. In this paper, HFO with CCS, LNG with CCS, bio-methanol, biodiesel, hydrogen, ammonia, and electricity were studied using empirical ship design models from a fleet-level perspective and at the Tank-To-Wake level, to assist operators, technology developers, and policy makers. The cargo attainment rate CAR (i.e., cargo that must be displaced due to the low-C propulsion system), the E S (i.e., TTW energy needed per ton*n.m.), the C S (economic cost per ton*n.m.), and the carbon intensity index CII (gCO 2 per ton*n.m.) were calculated so that the potential of the various alternatives can be compared quantitatively as a function of different criteria. The sensitivity of CAR towards ship type, fuel type, cargo type, and voyage distance were investigated. All ship types had similar CAR estimates, which implies that considerations concerning fuel transition apply equally to all ships (cargo, containership, tankers). Cargo type was the most sensitive factor that made a ship either weight or volume critical, indirectly impacting on the CAR of different fuels; for example, a hydrogen ship is weight-critical and has 2.3% higher CAR than the reference HFO ship at 20,000 nm. Voyage distance and fuel type could result in up to 48.51% and 11.75% of CAR reduction. In addition to CAR, the E S , C S , and CII for a typical mission were calculated and it was found that HFO and LNG with CCS gave about 20% higher E S and C S than HFO, and biodiesel had twice the cost, while ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen had 3–4 times the C S of HFO and electricity about 20 times, suggesting that decarbonisation of the world’s fleet will come at a large cost. As an example of including all factors in an effort to create a normalized scoring system, an equal weight was allocated to each index (CAR, E S , C S , and CII). Biodiesel achieved the highest score (80%) and was identified as the alternative with the highest potential for a deep-seagoing containership, followed by ammonia, hydrogen, bio-methanol, and CCS. Electricity has the lowest normalized score of 33%. A total of 100% CAR is achievable by all alternative fuels, but with compromises in voyage distance or with refuelling. For example, a battery containership carrying an equal amount of cargo as an HFO-fuelled containership can only complete 13% of the voyage distance or needs refuelling seven times to complete 10,000 n.m. The results can guide decarbonization strategies at the fleet level and can help optimise emissions as a function of specific missions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Chin Law & Epaminondas Mastorakos & Stephen Evans, 2022. "Estimates of the Decarbonization Potential of Alternative Fuels for Shipping as a Function of Vessel Type, Cargo, and Voyage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:20:p:7468-:d:938836
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Buckley Imhoff & Savvas Gkantonas & Epaminondas Mastorakos, 2021. "Analysing the Performance of Ammonia Powertrains in the Marine Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-41, November.
    2. Li Chin Law & Beatrice Foscoli & Epaminondas Mastorakos & Stephen Evans, 2021. "A Comparison of Alternative Fuels for Shipping in Terms of Lifecycle Energy and Cost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Korberg, A.D. & Brynolf, S. & Grahn, M. & Skov, I.R., 2021. "Techno-economic assessment of advanced fuels and propulsion systems in future fossil-free ships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Adland, Roar & Cariou, Pierre & Wolff, Francois-Charles, 2020. "Optimal ship speed and the cubic law revisited: Empirical evidence from an oil tanker fleet," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Boris Stolz & Maximilian Held & Gil Georges & Konstantinos Boulouchos, 2022. "Techno-economic analysis of renewable fuels for ships carrying bulk cargo in Europe," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 203-212, February.
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    1. Hamid Reza Soltani Motlagh & Seyed Behbood Issa Zadeh & Claudia Lizette Garay-Rondero, 2023. "Towards International Maritime Organization Carbon Targets: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis for Sustainable Container Shipping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Riccardo Risso & Lucia Cardona & Maurizio Archetti & Filippo Lossani & Barbara Bosio & Dario Bove, 2023. "A Review of On-Board Carbon Capture and Storage Techniques: Solutions to the 2030 IMO Regulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Livia Rauca & Ghiorghe Batrinca, 2023. "Impact of Carbon Intensity Indicator on the Vessels’ Operation and Analysis of Onboard Operational Measures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.

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