IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v155y2024icp29-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk assessment of achieving greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the maritime industry

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yuwan
  • Yuen, Kum Fai
  • Zhou, Yusheng

Abstract

To mitigate climate change, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has mandated a 50% reduction in shipping-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 2018. While short-term measures are agreed, several barriers remain in achieving this emission reduction target. Existing research only focuses on specific scenarios and ignores comprehensive risks that influence the target realization. Hence, this study fills the research gap by identifying 28 potential risks and prioritizing the most threatening risks using the Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal, and Environmental framework. Furthermore, risk assessment on the target achievement is conducted to prioritize risk categories and risk factors via a combination of Evidential Reasoning and Rule-based Bayesian network. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the results. The findings show that the categories, in the descending order of their importance, are economic, political, environmental, legal, social, and technological risk. In addition, the results reveal that “high low-carbon fuel prices” is the most pivotal risk under the economic category while notable political, environmental, legal, social, and technological risks are also recognized, each presenting distinct uncertainties in the decarbonization process. This study offers useful insights and strategic recommendations for stakeholders, aiding the transition to low-carbon maritime transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yuwan & Yuen, Kum Fai & Zhou, Yusheng, 2024. "Risk assessment of achieving greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the maritime industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 29-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:155:y:2024:i:c:p:29-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24001562
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nepomuceno de Oliveira, Maurício Aguilar & Szklo, Alexandre & Castelo Branco, David Alves, 2022. "Implementation of Maritime Transport Mitigation Measures according to their marginal abatement costs and their mitigation potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Peng, Peng & Yang, Yu & Lu, Feng & Cheng, Shifen & Mou, Naixia & Yang, Ren, 2018. "Modelling the competitiveness of the ports along the Maritime Silk Road with big data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 852-867.
    3. Chen, Shun & Zheng, Shiyuan & Sys, Christa, 2023. "Policies focusing on market-based measures towards shipping decarbonization: Designs, impacts and avenues for future research," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 109-124.
    4. Wang, Kun & Fu, Xiaowen & Luo, Meifeng, 2015. "Modeling the impacts of alternative emission trading schemes on international shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-49.
    5. Olympia Nisiforou & Louisa Marie Shakou & Afroditi Magou & Alexandros G. Charalambides, 2022. "A Roadmap towards the Decarbonization of Shipping: A Participatory Approach in Cyprus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Koesler, Simon & Achtnicht, Martin & Köhler, Jonathan, 2015. "Course set for a cap? A case study among ship operators on a maritime ETS," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-30.
    7. Hossain, Md. Shakhaoat & Fakhruddin, Abu Naieum Muhammad & Chowdhury, Muhammed Alamgir Zaman & Gan, Siew Hua, 2016. "Impact of ship-Breaking activities on the coastal environment of Bangladesh and a management system for its sustainability," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 84-94.
    8. Wan, Chengpeng & Yan, Xinping & Zhang, Di & Qu, Zhuohua & Yang, Zaili, 2019. "An advanced fuzzy Bayesian-based FMEA approach for assessing maritime supply chain risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 222-240.
    9. Beatriz Garcia & Anita Foerster & Jolene Lin, 2021. "Net Zero for the International Shipping Sector? An Analysis of the Implementation and Regulatory Challenges of the IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions," Journal of Environmental Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 85-112.
    10. Pamela Mcelwee & Esther Turnout & Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline & Jennifer Clapp & Cindy Isenhour & Tim Jackson & Eszter Kelemen & Daniel C Miller & Graciela Rusch & Joachim H Spangenberg & Anthony Wald, 2020. "Ensuring a Post-COVID Economic Agenda Tackles Global Biodiversity Loss," Post-Print halshs-02954370, HAL.
    11. Wang, Jinggai & Zhong, Meisu & Wang, Tianni & Ge, Ying-En, 2023. "Identifying industry-related opinions on shore power from a survey in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-81.
    12. Xing, Hui & Spence, Stephen & Chen, Hua, 2020. "A comprehensive review on countermeasures for CO2 emissions from ships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Chen, Siyuan & Liu, Jiangfeng & Zhang, Qi & Teng, Fei & McLellan, Benjamin C., 2022. "A critical review on deployment planning and risk analysis of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) toward carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Elidolu, Gizem & Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan & Arslanoglu, Yasin, 2023. "Operational risk assessment of ballasting and de-ballasting on-board tanker ship under FMECA extended Evidential Reasoning (ER) and Rule-based Bayesian Network (RBN) approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    15. Korberg, A.D. & Brynolf, S. & Grahn, M. & Skov, I.R., 2021. "Techno-economic assessment of advanced fuels and propulsion systems in future fossil-free ships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Stolz, B. & Held, M. & Georges, G. & Boulouchos, K., 2021. "The CO2 reduction potential of shore-side electricity in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Bai, Xiwen & Zhang, Xiunian & Li, Kevin X. & Zhou, Yaoming & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2021. "Research topics and trends in the maritime transport: A structural topic model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 11-24.
    18. Patrizia Serra & Gianfranco Fancello, 2020. "Towards the IMO’s GHG Goals: A Critical Overview of the Perspectives and Challenges of the Main Options for Decarbonizing International Shipping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-32, April.
    19. Jie Li & Xiaohui Xu & Jing Lu, 2015. "Negotiation over Intellectual Property Rights Protection in a Mixed Market," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 759-775, November.
    20. Zhou, Yusheng & Li, Xue & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Yulong & Zheng, Jianfeng & Yang, Lingxiao & Li, Xia, 2024. "Allocation and trading schemes of the maritime emissions trading system: Liner shipping route choice and carbon emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 60-78.
    2. Ahmed, Shoaib & Li, Tie & Yi, Ping & Chen, Run, 2023. "Environmental impact assessment of green ammonia-powered very large tanker ship for decarbonized future shipping operations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Sotiria Lagouvardou & Harilaos N. Psaraftis & Thalis Zis, 2020. "A Literature Survey on Market-Based Measures for the Decarbonization of Shipping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Perčić, Maja & Frković, Lovro & Pukšec, Tomislav & Ćosić, Boris & Li, Oi Lun & Vladimir, Nikola, 2022. "Life-cycle assessment and life-cycle cost assessment of power batteries for all-electric vessels for short-sea navigation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    5. Ramazan Ozkan Yildiz & Elif Koc & Oguzhan Der & Murat Aymelek, 2024. "Unveiling the Contemporary Research Direction and Current Business Management Strategies for Port Decarbonization Through a Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-38, December.
    6. I. Mallidis & S. Despoudi & R. Dekker & E. Iakovou & D. Vlachos, 2020. "The impact of sulphur limit fuel regulations on maritime supply chain network design," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 677-695, November.
    7. Zhang, Ming & Zeng, Xianyang & Tan, Zhijia, 2024. "Joint decision of green technology adoption and sailing pattern for a coastal ship under ECAs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 102-113.
    8. Wang, Jinggai & Li, Huanhuan & Yang, Zaili & Ge, Ying-En, 2024. "Shore power for reduction of shipping emission in port: A bibliometric analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Lixian Fan & Bingmei Gu, 2019. "Impacts of the Increasingly Strict Sulfur Limit on Compliance Option Choices: The Case Study of Chinese SECA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Uflaz, Esma & Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Tunçel, Ahmet Lutfi & Aydin, Muhammet & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan, 2024. "Quantifying potential cyber-attack risks in maritime transportation under Dempster–Shafer theory FMECA and rule-based Bayesian network modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Calise, Francesco & Cappiello, Francesco Liberato & Cimmino, Luca & Dentice d’Accadia, Massimo & Vicidomini, Maria, 2024. "A solar-assisted liquefied biomethane production by anaerobic digestion: Dynamic simulations for harbors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    12. Vinicius Andrade dos Santos & Patrícia Pereira da Silva & Luís Manuel Ventura Serrano, 2022. "The Maritime Sector and Its Problematic Decarbonization: A Systematic Review of the Contribution of Alternative Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-30, May.
    13. Sheng, Dian & Li, Zhi-Chun & Fu, Xiaowen & Gillen, David, 2017. "Modeling the effects of unilateral and uniform emission regulations under shipping company and port competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 99-114.
    14. Monios, Jason & Ng, Adolf K.Y., 2021. "Competing institutional logics and institutional erosion in environmental governance of maritime transport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Monica Grosso & Fabio Luis Marques dos Santos & Konstantinos Gkoumas & Marcin Stępniak & Ferenc Pekár, 2021. "The Role of Research and Innovation in Europe for the Decarbonisation of Waterborne Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-21, September.
    16. Gu, Yewen & Wallace, Stein W. & Wang, Xin, 2018. "Can an Emission Trading Scheme really reduce CO2 emissions in the short term? Evidence from a maritime fleet composition and deployment model," Discussion Papers 2018/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    17. Li, Xue & Zhou, Yusheng & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "A systematic review on seafarer health: Conditions, antecedents and interventions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 11-25.
    18. Bilgili, Levent, 2023. "A systematic review on the acceptance of alternative marine fuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    19. Zhang, Lu & Cui, Li & Chen, Lujie & Dai, Jing & Jin, Ziyi & Wu, Hao, 2023. "A hybrid approach to explore the critical criteria of online supply chain finance to improve supply chain performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    20. Qian Dai & Jiaqi Yang & Dong Li, 2018. "Modeling a Three-Mode Hybrid Port-Hinterland Freight Intermodal Distribution Network with Environmental Consideration: The Case of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-26, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:155:y:2024:i:c:p:29-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.