Wind Farm Modeling with Interpretable Physics-Informed Machine Learning

Turbulent wakes trailing utility-scale wind turbines reduce the power production and efficiency of downstream turbines. Thorough understanding and modeling of these wakes is required to optimally design wind farms as well as control and predict their power production. While low-order, physics-based wake models are useful for qualitative physical understanding, they generally are unable to accurately predict the power production of utility-scale wind farms due to a large number of simplifying assumptions and neglected physics. In this study, we propose a suite of physics-informed statistical models to accurately predict the power production of arbitrary wind farm layouts. These models are trained and tested using five years of historical one-minute averaged operational data from the Summerview wind farm in Alberta, Canada. The trained models reduce the prediction error compared both to a physics-based wake model and a standard two-layer neural network. The trained parameters of the statistical models are visualized and interpreted in the context of the flow physics of turbulent wind turbine wakes.