IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i11p1707-d116477.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Battle between Battery and Fuel Cell Powered Electric Vehicles: A BWM Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Geerten Van de Kaa

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Daniel Scholten

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Jafar Rezaei

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Christine Milchram

    (Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

The transition to a more sustainable personal transportation sector requires the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. However, a dominant design has not yet emerged and a standards battle is being fought between battery and hydrogen fuel cell powered electric vehicles. The aim of this paper is to analyze which factors are most likely to influence the outcome of this battle, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the industry regarding investment decisions in either of these technologies. We examine the relevant factors for standard dominance and apply a multi-criteria decision-making method, best worst method, to determine the relative importance of these factors. The results indicate that the key factors include technological superiority, compatibility, and brand reputation and credibility. Our findings show that battery powered electric vehicles have a greater chance of winning the standards battle. This study contributes to theory by providing further empirical evidence that the outcome of standards battles can be explained and predicted by applying factors for standard success. We conclude that technology dominance in the automotive industry is mostly driven by technological characteristics and characteristics of the format supporter.

Suggested Citation

  • Geerten Van de Kaa & Daniel Scholten & Jafar Rezaei & Christine Milchram, 2017. "The Battle between Battery and Fuel Cell Powered Electric Vehicles: A BWM Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1707-:d:116477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1707/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1707/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon den Uijl & Henk J. de Vries, 2013. "Pushing technological progress by strategic manoeuvring: the triumph of Blu-ray over HD-DVD," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1361-1384, November.
    2. Brown, Stephen & Pyke, David & Steenhof, Paul, 2010. "Electric vehicles: The role and importance of standards in an emerging market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3797-3806, July.
    3. Francoise Nemry & Martijn Brons, 2010. "Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles. Market penetration scenarios of electric drive vehicles," JRC Working Papers JRC58748, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. Funk, Jefrey L, 1998. "Competition between regional standards and the success and failure of firms in the world-wide mobile communication market," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4-5), pages 419-441, May.
    5. Edwards, P.P. & Kuznetsov, V.L. & David, W.I.F. & Brandon, N.P., 2008. "Hydrogen and fuel cells: Towards a sustainable energy future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4356-4362, December.
    6. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    7. den Hartigh, Erik & Ortt, J. Roland & van de Kaa, Geerten & Stolwijk, Claire C.M., 2016. "Platform control during battles for market dominance: The case of Apple versus IBM in the early personal computer industry," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 48, pages 4-12.
    8. Gupta, Himanshu & Barua, Mukesh Kumar, 2016. "Identifying enablers of technological innovation for Indian MSMEs using best–worst multi criteria decision making method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 69-79.
    9. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-841, August.
    10. Offer, G.J. & Howey, D. & Contestabile, M. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2010. "Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 24-29, January.
    11. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-337, May.
    12. Nastaran Chitsaz & Ali Azarnivand, 2017. "Water Scarcity Management in Arid Regions Based on an Extended Multiple Criteria Technique," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 233-250, January.
    13. Axsen, Jonn & Kurani, Kenneth S. & Burke, Andrew, 2010. "Are batteries ready for plug-in hybrid buyers?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 173-182, May.
    14. Jeffrey L. Funk, 1998. "The Competition between Regional Standards and the Success and Failure of Firms in the World-Wide Mobile Communication Market," Kobe Economic & Business Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 42, pages 137-161, February.
    15. Cusumano, Michael A. & Mylonadis, Yiorgos & Rosenbloom, Richard S., 1992. "Strategic Maneuvering and Mass-Market Dynamics: The Triumph of VHS over Beta," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 51-94, April.
    16. Suarez, Fernando F., 2004. "Battles for technological dominance: an integrative framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 271-286, March.
    17. van de Kaa, Geerten & de Vries, Henk J., 2015. "Factors for winning format battles: A comparative case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 222-235.
    18. Adedamola Adepetu & Srinivasan Keshav, 2017. "The relative importance of price and driving range on electric vehicle adoption: Los Angeles case study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 353-373, March.
    19. Farrell, Joseph & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "Installed Base and Compatibility: Innovation, Product Preannouncements, and Predation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 940-955, December.
    20. Negin Salimi & Jafar Rezaei, 2016. "Measuring efficiency of university-industry Ph.D. projects using best worst method," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(3), pages 1911-1938, December.
    21. Negin Salimi, 2017. "Quality assessment of scientific outputs using the BWM," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(1), pages 195-213, July.
    22. Steinhilber, Simone & Wells, Peter & Thankappan, Samarthia, 2013. "Socio-technical inertia: Understanding the barriers to electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-539.
    23. Axsen, Jonn & Burke, Andy & Kurani, Kenneth S, 2010. "Are Batteries Ready for Plug-in Hybrid Buyers?," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7vh184rw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    24. van de Kaa, Geerten & Rezaei, Jafar & Kamp, Linda & de Winter, Allard, 2014. "Photovoltaic technology selection: A fuzzy MCDM approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 662-670.
    25. Fox, Jacob & Axsen, Jonn & Jaccard, Mark, 2017. "Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the U.S. Passenger Vehicle Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 133-147.
    26. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
    27. Zubaryeva, Alyona & Thiel, Christian & Barbone, Enrico & Mercier, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing factors for the identification of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe: expert opinion elicitation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1622-1637.
    28. Rezaei, Jafar, 2016. "Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method: Some properties and a linear model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 126-130.
    29. Rezaei, Jafar, 2015. "Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-57.
    30. Raghu Garud & Arun Kumaraswamy, 1993. "Changing competitive dynamics in network industries: An exploration of sun microsystems' open systems strategy," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 351-369, July.
    31. Steg, Linda, 2005. "Car use: lust and must. Instrumental, symbolic and affective motives for car use," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 147-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoogerbrugge, Coen & van de Kaa, Geerten & Chappin, Emile, 2023. "Adoption of quality standards for corporate greenhouse gas inventories: The importance of other stakeholders," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    2. van de Kaa, Geerten & van Ek, Martijn & Kamp, Linda M. & Rezaei, Jafar, 2020. "Wind turbine technology battles: Gearbox versus direct drive - opening up the black box of technology characteristics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Morteza Yazdani & Prasenjit Chatterjee & Maria Jose Montero-Simo & Rafael A. Araque-Padilla, 2019. "An Integrated Multi-Attribute Model for Evaluation of Sustainable Mobile Phone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Hoang Nghia Vu & Xuan Linh Nguyen & Sangseok Yu, 2022. "A Lumped-Mass Model of Membrane Humidifier for PEMFC," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Pei-Yao Su & Jing-Hong Guo & Qi-Gan Shao, 2021. "Construction of the Quality Evaluation Index System of MOOC Platforms Based on the User Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Shantanu Pardhi & Sajib Chakraborty & Dai-Duong Tran & Mohamed El Baghdadi & Steven Wilkins & Omar Hegazy, 2022. "A Review of Fuel Cell Powertrains for Long-Haul Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Technology, Hydrogen, Energy and Thermal Management Solutions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-55, December.
    7. Mi, Xiaomei & Tang, Ming & Liao, Huchang & Shen, Wenjing & Lev, Benjamin, 2019. "The state-of-the-art survey on integrations and applications of the best worst method in decision making: Why, what, what for and what's next?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 205-225.
    8. Olivier Bethoux, 2020. "Hydrogen Fuel Cell Road Vehicles: State of the Art and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, November.
    9. Gregory Trencher & Achmed Edianto, 2021. "Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    10. Kheybari, Siamak & Kazemi, Mostafa & Rezaei, Jafar, 2019. "Bioethanol facility location selection using best-worst method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 612-623.
    11. Tabasam Rashid & Asif Ali & Yu-Ming Chu, 2021. "Hybrid BW-EDAS MCDM methodology for optimal industrial robot selection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, February.
    12. van de Kaa, G. & Fens, T. & Rezaei, J. & Kaynak, D. & Hatun, Z. & Tsilimeni-Archangelidi, A., 2019. "Realizing smart meter connectivity: Analyzing the competing technologies Power line communication, mobile telephony, and radio frequency using the best worst method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 320-327.
    13. Trencher, Gregory & Taeihagh, Araz & Yarime, Masaru, 2020. "Overcoming barriers to developing and diffusing fuel-cell vehicles: Governance strategies and experiences in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Dai, Haiwen & Qualls, William J. & Zhu, You, 2024. "Win, lose, or draw? Forecasting the outcome of a race toward a dominant formal standard with machine learning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    15. Mališa Žižović & Dragan Pamučar & Goran Ćirović & Miodrag M. Žižović & Boža D. Miljković, 2020. "A Model for Determining Weight Coefficients by Forming a Non-Decreasing Series at Criteria Significance Levels (NDSL)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-18, May.
    16. Olivier Bethoux, 2020. "Hydrogen Fuel Cell Road Vehicles and Their Infrastructure: An Option towards an Environmentally Friendly Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-27, November.
    17. Siavash Khalili & Eetu Rantanen & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Christian Breyer, 2019. "Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-54, October.
    18. Haas, Christian & Kempa, Karol & Moslener, Ulf, 2023. "Dealing with deep uncertainty in the energy transition: What we can learn from the electricity and transportation sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    19. Silke van der Burg & Maarten F. M. Jurg & Flore M. Tadema & Linda M. Kamp & Geerten van de Kaa, 2022. "Dominant Designs for Wings of Airborne Wind Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-11, October.
    20. Indre Siksnelyte-Butkiene & Dalia Streimikiene, 2022. "Sustainable Development of Road Transport in the EU: Multi-Criteria Analysis of Countries’ Achievements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, November.
    21. Pamucar, Dragan & Macura, Dragana & Tavana, Madjid & Božanić, Darko & Knežević, Nikola, 2022. "An integrated rough group multicriteria decision-making model for the ex-ante prioritization of infrastructure projects: The Serbian Railways case," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van de Kaa, G. & Fens, T. & Rezaei, J. & Kaynak, D. & Hatun, Z. & Tsilimeni-Archangelidi, A., 2019. "Realizing smart meter connectivity: Analyzing the competing technologies Power line communication, mobile telephony, and radio frequency using the best worst method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 320-327.
    2. van de Kaa, Geerten & Janssen, Marijn & Rezaei, Jafar, 2018. "Standards battles for business-to-government data exchange: Identifying success factors for standard dominance using the Best Worst Method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 182-189.
    3. G. Kaa & M. J. Greeven, 2017. "Mobile telecommunication standardization in Japan, China, the United States, and Europe: a comparison of regulatory and industrial regimes," Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 181-192, May.
    4. van Velzen, Arjan & Annema, Jan Anne & van de Kaa, Geerten & van Wee, Bert, 2019. "Proposing a more comprehensive future total cost of ownership estimation framework for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1034-1046.
    5. Papachristos, George, 2017. "Diversity in technology competition: The link between platforms and sociotechnical transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 291-306.
    6. van de Kaa, Geerten & van Ek, Martijn & Kamp, Linda M. & Rezaei, Jafar, 2020. "Wind turbine technology battles: Gearbox versus direct drive - opening up the black box of technology characteristics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Silke van der Burg & Maarten F. M. Jurg & Flore M. Tadema & Linda M. Kamp & Geerten van de Kaa, 2022. "Dominant Designs for Wings of Airborne Wind Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-11, October.
    8. van de Kaa, Geerten & de Vries, Henk J., 2015. "Factors for winning format battles: A comparative case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 222-235.
    9. Deishin Lee & Haim Mendelson, 2007. "Adoption of Information Technology Under Network Effects," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 395-413, December.
    10. Marechal, Kevin, 2007. "The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5181-5194, October.
    11. Geerten van de Kaa & Lieke van den Eijnden & Neelke Doorn, 2020. "Filtering Out Standard Success Criteria in the Case of Multi-Mode Standardization: Responsible Waste Water Treatment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-10, February.
    12. van de Kaa, Geerten & Greeven, Mark, 2017. "LED standardization in China and South East Asia: Stakeholders, infrastructure and institutional regimes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 863-870.
    13. Mi, Xiaomei & Tang, Ming & Liao, Huchang & Shen, Wenjing & Lev, Benjamin, 2019. "The state-of-the-art survey on integrations and applications of the best worst method in decision making: Why, what, what for and what's next?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 205-225.
    14. Suleymanova Irina & Wey Christian, 2011. "Bertrand Competition in Markets with Network Effects and Switching Costs," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-58, September.
    15. Sillanpää, Antti & Laamanen, Tomi, 2009. "Positive and negative feedback effects in competition for dominance of network business systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 871-884, June.
    16. Narayanan, V.K. & Chen, Tianxu, 2012. "Research on technology standards: Accomplishment and challenges," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1375-1406.
    17. Beomjin Choi & T. S. Raghu & Ajay Vinzé & Kevin J. Dooley, 2019. "Effectiveness of standards consortia: Social network perspectives," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 405-416, April.
    18. Salimi, Negin & Rezaei, Jafar, 2018. "Evaluating firms’ R&D performance using best worst method," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 147-155.
    19. Nicholas Economides, 1997. "The Economics of Networks," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 1(0), December.
    20. Morton, Craig & Anable, Jillian & Yeboah, Godwin & Cottrill, Caitlin, 2018. "The spatial pattern of demand in the early market for electric vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 119-130.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1707-:d:116477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.