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Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Lauret

    (PIMENT Laboratory, Université de La Réunion,15 Avenue René Cassin, 97715 Saint-Denis, France)

  • Mathieu David

    (PIMENT Laboratory, Université de La Réunion,15 Avenue René Cassin, 97715 Saint-Denis, France)

  • Hugo T. C. Pedro

    (Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Jacobs School of Engineering, Center for Energy Research University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA)

Abstract

In this work, we assess the performance of three probabilistic models for intra-day solar forecasting. More precisely, a linear quantile regression method is used to build three models for generating 1 h–6 h-ahead probabilistic forecasts. Our approach is applied to forecasting solar irradiance at a site experiencing highly variable sky conditions using the historical ground observations of solar irradiance as endogenous inputs and day-ahead forecasts as exogenous inputs. Day-ahead irradiance forecasts are obtained from the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model maintained by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Several metrics, mainly originated from the weather forecasting community, are used to evaluate the performance of the probabilistic forecasts. The results demonstrated that the NWP exogenous inputs improve the quality of the intra-day probabilistic forecasts. The analysis considered two locations with very dissimilar solar variability. Comparison between the two locations highlighted that the statistical performance of the probabilistic models depends on the local sky conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Lauret & Mathieu David & Hugo T. C. Pedro, 2017. "Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:10:p:1591-:d:114807
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Le Gal La Salle, Josselin & Badosa, Jordi & David, Mathieu & Pinson, Pierre & Lauret, Philippe, 2020. "Added-value of ensemble prediction system on the quality of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1321-1339.
    8. Alonso-Suárez, R. & David, M. & Branco, V. & Lauret, P., 2020. "Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 554-573.
    9. Seungbeom Nam & Jin Hur, 2018. "Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Solar Power Outputs Based on the Naïve Bayes Classifier and Kriging Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
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    12. Takahiro Takamatsu & Hideaki Ohtake & Takashi Oozeki, 2022. "Support Vector Quantile Regression for the Post-Processing of Meso-Scale Ensemble Prediction System Data in the Kanto Region: Solar Power Forecast Reducing Overestimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
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    14. Yang, Dazhi & Yang, Guoming & Liu, Bai, 2023. "Combining quantiles of calibrated solar forecasts from ensemble numerical weather prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
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