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Added-value of ensemble prediction system on the quality of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts

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  • Le Gal La Salle, Josselin
  • Badosa, Jordi
  • David, Mathieu
  • Pinson, Pierre
  • Lauret, Philippe

Abstract

Accurate solar forecasts is one of the most effective solution to enhance grid operations. As the solar resource is intrinsically uncertain, a growing interest for solar probabilistic forecasts is observed in the solar research community. In this work, we compare two approaches for the generation of day-ahead solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts. The first class of models termed as deterministic-based models generates probabilistic forecasts from a deterministic value of the irradiance predicted by a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The second type of models denoted by ensemble-based models issues probabilistic forecasts through the calibration of an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) or from information (such as mean and variance) derived from the ensemble. The verification of the probabilistic forecasts is made using a sound framework. A numerical score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), is used to assess the overall performance of the different models. The decomposition of the CRPS into reliability and resolution provides a further detailed insight into the quality of the probabilistic forecasts. In addition, a new diagnostic tool which evaluates the contribution of the statistical moments of the forecast distributions to the CRPS is proposed. This tool denoted by MC-CRPS allows identifying the characteristics of an ensemble that have an impact on the quality of the probabilistic forecasts. The assessment of the different models is done on several sites experiencing very different climatic conditions. Results show a general superior performance of ensemble-based models as the gain in forecast quality measured by the CRPS ranges from 4% to 16% depending on the site.

Suggested Citation

  • Le Gal La Salle, Josselin & Badosa, Jordi & David, Mathieu & Pinson, Pierre & Lauret, Philippe, 2020. "Added-value of ensemble prediction system on the quality of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1321-1339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:162:y:2020:i:c:p:1321-1339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.07.042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. B. Iversen & J. M. Morales & J. K. Møller & H. Madsen, 2014. "Probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance using stochastic differential equations," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 152-164, May.
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    5. David, Mathieu & Luis, Mazorra Aguiar & Lauret, Philippe, 2018. "Comparison of intraday probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance using only endogenous data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 529-547.
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    2. Mohammad Rayati & Pasquale De Falco & Daniela Proto & Mokhtar Bozorg & Mauro Carpita, 2021. "Generation Data of Synthetic High Frequency Solar Irradiance for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Electrical Distribution Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.

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