IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v81y2018ip1p1484-1512.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption

Author

Listed:
  • van der Meer, D.W.
  • Widén, J.
  • Munkhammar, J.

Abstract

tAccurate forecasting simultaneously becomes more important and more challenging due to the increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the built environment on the one hand, and the increasing stochastic nature of electricity consumption, e.g., through electric vehicles (EVs), on the other hand. Until recently, research has mainly focused on deterministic forecasting. However, such forecasts convey little information about the possible future state of a system and since a forecast is inherently erroneous, it is important to quantify this error. This paper therefore focuses on the recent advances in the area of probabilistic forecasting of solar power (PSPF) and load forecasting (PLF). The goal of a probabilistic forecast is to provide either a complete predictive density of the future state or to predict that the future state of a system will fall in an interval, defined by a confidence level. The aim of this paper is to analyze the state of the art and assess the different approaches in terms of their performance, but also to what extent these approaches can be generalized so that they not only perform best on the data set for which they were designed, but also on other data sets or different case studies. In addition, growing interest in net demand forecasting, i.e., demand less generation, is another important motivation to combine PSPF and PLF into one review paper and assess compatibility. One important finding is that there is no single preferred model that can be applied to any circumstance. In fact, a study has shown that the same model, with adapted parameters, applied to different case studies performed well but did not excel, when compared to models that were optimized for the specific task. Furthermore, there is need for standardization, in particular in terms of filtering night time data, normalizing results and performance metrics.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:81:y:2018:i:p1:p:1484-1512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032117308523
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.212?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Yao & Wang, Jianxue & Wang, Xifan, 2014. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 255-270.
    2. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    3. Lazos, Dimitris & Sproul, Alistair B. & Kay, Merlinde, 2014. "Optimisation of energy management in commercial buildings with weather forecasting inputs: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 587-603.
    4. Mangalova, Ekaterina & Shesterneva, Olesya, 2016. "Sequence of nonparametric models for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1023-1028.
    5. Widén, Joakim & Wäckelgård, Ewa, 2010. "A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1880-1892, June.
    6. Ziel, Florian & Liu, Bidong, 2016. "Lasso estimation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1029-1037.
    7. Ren, Ye & Suganthan, P.N. & Srikanth, N., 2015. "Ensemble methods for wind and solar power forecasting—A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 82-91.
    8. Huang, Jing & Perry, Matthew, 2016. "A semi-empirical approach using gradient boosting and k-nearest neighbors regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic solar power forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1081-1086.
    9. Gaillard, Pierre & Goude, Yannig & Nedellec, Raphaël, 2016. "Additive models and robust aggregation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load and electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1038-1050.
    10. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
    11. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    12. Takeda, Hisashi & Tamura, Yoshiyasu & Sato, Seisho, 2016. "Using the ensemble Kalman filter for electricity load forecasting and analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    13. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    14. Chu, Yinghao & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2017. "Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 526-536.
    15. He, Yaoyao & Liu, Rui & Li, Haiyan & Wang, Shuo & Lu, Xiaofen, 2017. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression and Copula theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 254-266.
    16. Juban, Romain & Ohlsson, Henrik & Maasoumy, Mehdi & Poirier, Louis & Kolter, J. Zico, 2016. "A multiple quantile regression approach to the wind, solar, and price tracks of GEFCom2014," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1094-1102.
    17. Boland, John, 2015. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 607-616.
    18. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    19. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    20. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khosravi, Abbas, 2014. "Uncertainty handling using neural network-based prediction intervals for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 916-925.
    21. Foucquier, Aurélie & Robert, Sylvain & Suard, Frédéric & Stéphan, Louis & Jay, Arnaud, 2013. "State of the art in building modelling and energy performances prediction: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 272-288.
    22. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    23. He, Yaoyao & Xu, Qifa & Wan, Jinhong & Yang, Shanlin, 2016. "Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 498-512.
    24. Fumo, Nelson, 2014. "A review on the basics of building energy estimation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 53-60.
    25. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios, 2016. "A hybrid model of kernel density estimation and quantile regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1017-1022.
    26. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2016. "Forecasting electricity smart meter data using conditional kernel density estimation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 47-59.
    27. Tao Hong, 2014. "Energy Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 32, pages 43-48, Winter.
    28. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    29. Raza, Muhammad Qamar & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1352-1372.
    30. Dordonnat, V. & Pichavant, A. & Pierrot, A., 2016. "GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting using time series and semi-parametric regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1005-1011.
    31. Diagne, Maimouna & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe & Boland, John & Schmutz, Nicolas, 2013. "Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 65-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    2. Moreno-Carbonell, Santiago & Sánchez-Úbeda, Eugenio F. & Muñoz, Antonio, 2020. "Rethinking weather station selection for electric load forecasting using genetic algorithms," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 695-712.
    3. Zhang, Wenjie & Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2018. "Parallel and reliable probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression forest and quantile determination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 810-819.
    4. Antonio Bracale & Guido Carpinelli & Pasquale De Falco, 2019. "Developing and Comparing Different Strategies for Combining Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasts in an Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    5. Liu, Luyao & Zhao, Yi & Chang, Dongliang & Xie, Jiyang & Ma, Zhanyu & Sun, Qie & Yin, Hongyi & Wennersten, Ronald, 2018. "Prediction of short-term PV power output and uncertainty analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 700-711.
    6. González Ordiano, Jorge Ángel & Gröll, Lutz & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeyer, Veit, 2020. "Probabilistic energy forecasting using the nearest neighbors quantile filter and quantile regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 310-323.
    7. Niemierko, Rochus & Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm, 2019. "A D-vine copula quantile regression approach for the prediction of residential heating energy consumption based on historical data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 691-708.
    8. Zhang, Shu & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yutian & Wang, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    9. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios & Ziel, Florian & Arora, Siddharth, 2019. "Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1469-1484.
    10. Luis Mazorra-Aguiar & Philippe Lauret & Mathieu David & Albert Oliver & Gustavo Montero, 2021. "Comparison of Two Solar Probabilistic Forecasting Methodologies for Microgrids Energy Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Nie, Yuhao & Li, Xiatong & Paletta, Quentin & Aragon, Max & Scott, Andea & Brandt, Adam, 2024. "Open-source sky image datasets for solar forecasting with deep learning: A comprehensive survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    12. Alonso-Suárez, R. & David, M. & Branco, V. & Lauret, P., 2020. "Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 554-573.
    13. David, Mathieu & Luis, Mazorra Aguiar & Lauret, Philippe, 2018. "Comparison of intraday probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance using only endogenous data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 529-547.
    14. Erdener, Burcin Cakir & Feng, Cong & Doubleday, Kate & Florita, Anthony & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "A review of behind-the-meter solar forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    16. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    17. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    18. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
    19. Lebotsa, Moshoko Emily & Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce & Fildes, Robert & Boylan, John E., 2018. "Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 104-118.
    20. Florian Ziel, 2020. "Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:81:y:2018:i:p1:p:1484-1512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.