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The Treasury market in spring 2020 and the response of the Federal Reserve

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  • Annette Vissing-Jørgensen

Abstract

Treasury yields spiked during the initial phase of COVID. The 10-year yield increased by 64 bps from March 9 to 18, 2020, leading the Federal Reserve to purchase $1T of Treasuries in 2020Q1. Fed Treasury purchases were causal for reducing Treasury yields based on (1) the timing of purchases (which increased on March 19), (2) evidence against confounding factors, and (3) the timing of yield reversal and Fed purchases in the MBS market. Treasury-QE worked more via purchases than announcements. The yield spike was driven by liquidity needs of mutual funds, foreign official agencies, and hedge funds that were unaffected by the March 15, 2020 Treasury-QE announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2021. "The Treasury market in spring 2020 and the response of the Federal Reserve," BIS Working Papers 966, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:966
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    3. He, Zhiguo & Nagel, Stefan & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Treasury inconvenience yields during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 57-79.
    4. Andreas Schrimpf & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2020. "Leverage and margin spirals in fixed income markets during the Covid-19 crisis," BIS Bulletins 2, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Gilchrist, Simon & Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2024. "The Fed takes on corporate credit risk: An analysis of the efficacy of the SMCCF," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2020. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response," NBER Working Papers 27168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daniel Barth & Jay Kahn, 2020. "Basis Trades and Treasury Market Illiquidity," Briefs 20-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    8. Falato, Antonio & Goldstein, Itay & Hortaçsu, Ali, 2021. "Financial fragility in the COVID-19 crisis: The case of investment funds in corporate bond markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-52.
    9. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A Longstaff & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Renting Balance Sheet Space: Intermediary Balance Sheet Rental Costs and the Valuation of Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5051-5091.
    10. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treasury bonds; COVID; Federal Reserve; quantitative easing.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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