IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedrer/y1990isepp3-26nv.76no.5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy Q. Cook
  • Thomas K. Hahn

Abstract

An examination of the relationship between yield and maturity in the money market. The expectations theory suggests that the yield curve should be a good predictor of future spot interest rates. A substantial body of research in recent years has tested this implication of the theory and discussed possible reasons for the lack of support for the theory from these tests. This paper provides a review of this literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas K. Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 76(Sep), pages 3-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1990:i:sep:p:3-26:n:v.76no.5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbrichreview/rev_frbrich199009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendershott, Patric H, 1984. "Expectations, Surprises and Treasury Bill Rates: 1960-82," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 685-696, July.
    2. Rik Hafer & Scott E. Hein, 1989. "Comparing futures and survey forecasts of near-term Treasury bill rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-42.
    3. Andrea J. Heuson, 1988. "The Term Premia Relationship Implicit In The Term Structure Of Treasury Bills," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 13-20, March.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Term premiums in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 529-546, December.
    6. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-314, October-D.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 223-248.
    9. Husted, Steven & Kitchen, John, 1985. "Some Evidence on the International Transmission of U.S. Money Supply Announcement Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 456-466, November.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:283-305 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kane, Edward J, 1983. "Nested Tests of Alternative Term-Structure Theories," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 115-123, February.
    12. Steven Strongin & Vefa Tarhan, 1990. "Money supply announcements and the market's perception of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    14. Michael T. Belongia, 1987. "Predicting interest rates: a comparison of professional and market- based forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 9-15.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:339-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," NBER Working Papers 3376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    19. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    20. William T. Gavin & Nicholas V. Karamouzis, 1984. "Monetary policy and real interest rates: new evidence from the money stock announcements," Working Papers (Old Series) 8406, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1988. "The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements and Their Effect on Market Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 167-180, May.
    22. Shantaram P. Hegde & Bill McDonald, 1986. "On the informational role of treasury bill futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 629-643, December.
    23. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    24. Park, Sang Yong & Reinganum, Marc R., 1986. "The puzzling price behavior of treasury bills that mature at the turn of calendar months," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 267-283, June.
    25. Simon, David P, 1990. "Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds Rate Spread over Recent Monetary Policy Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 467-477, June.
    26. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    27. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.
    28. Lauterbach, Beni, 1989. "Consumption volatility, production volatility, spot-rate volatility, and the returns on treasury bills and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 155-179, September.
    29. Startz, Richard, 1982. "Do forecast errors or term premia really make the difference between long and short rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 323-329, November.
    30. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Reuben A. Kessel, 1965. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kess65-1.
    32. Fama, Eugene F, 1976. "Inflation Uncertainty and Expected Returns on Treasury Bills," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 427-448, June.
    33. McCulloch, J. Huston, 1987. "The monotonicity of the term premium : A closer look," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 185-192, March.
    34. Peter A. Abken, 1990. "Innovations in modeling the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 2-27.
    35. Adrian W. Throop, 1981. "Interest rate forecasts and market efficiency," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 29-43.
    36. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    37. Roy H. Webb, 1987. "The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Nov), pages 3-9.
    38. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    39. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October.
    40. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    41. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    42. Pesando, James E, 1975. "Determinants of Term Premiums in the Market for United States Treasury Bills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(5), pages 1317-1327, December.
    43. Hamburger, Michael J & Platt, Elliott N, 1975. "The Expectations Hypothesis and the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 190-199, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    2. Kuo, Shew-Huei & Enders, Walter, 2004. "The term structure of Japanese interest rates:: The equilibrium spread with asymmetric dynamics," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-98, March.
    3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    4. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Testing for UIP-Type Relationships: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 705-749, September.
    5. Michael Gordon, 2003. "Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Karel Brůna, 2006. "Glenn Rudebusch's View on the Targeting of Short-Term Interest Rates [Cílování krátkodobých úrokových sazeb pohledem Glenna Rudebusche]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 163-169.
    7. Downing, Chris & Oliner, Stephen, 2007. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 59-86, January.
    8. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    9. Sundell, Paul & Denbaly, Mark, 1992. "Modeling Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Efficient Market Approach," Staff Reports 278623, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    12. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Testing for UIP: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9027, CESifo.
    13. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Forward interest rate premium and asymmetric adjustment: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 258-273, April.
    15. Vladimír Pikora, 2007. "Vliv zveřejněných informací na výnosovou křivku [The impact of fresh releases on the yield curve]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(6), pages 809-828.
    16. Sagi Akron, 2016. "Business cycles and the expectations of short-term central bank rates in light of Construal Level Theory," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 171-187, August.
    17. Madura, J. & Wiley, M. K. & Zarruk, E. R., 1998. "Cointegration of term structure premiums across countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 393-412, November.
    18. Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1995. "The rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure, monetary policy, and time-varying term premia," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 65-81.
    19. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    20. Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    22. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    3. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    4. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    6. D H Kim, 2003. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0306, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 555-580, December.
    8. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October.
    9. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    10. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    11. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    13. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.
    14. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    15. Stephen A. Buser & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, "undated". "Adjusted Forward Rates as Predictors of Future Spot Rates," Research in Financial Economics 9605, Ohio State University.
    16. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    17. Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 952-970, April.
    18. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    19. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    20. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
    21. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1990:i:sep:p:3-26:n:v.76no.5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.