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The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market

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  • PANAGIOTIS T. KONSTANTINOU

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) for the short end of the Polish interbank term structure. Employing daily data, the hypothesis that the actual yield spread is an unbiased predictor of the perfect foresight spread is tested. Additionally, Johansen's FIML procedure is used in order to explore the dynamic comovement of yields across the term structure and also test the parameter restrictions imposed by the EH. The empirical findings provide some evidence in favor of the EH. In particular, there is evidence that all yields share a common stochastic trend. Furthermore, at the margin, the EH restrictions imposed on the cointegration space are not rejected. On balance, one might conclude that the EH is not grossly at variance with the data.

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  • Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:41:y:2005:i:3:p:70-91
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    2. Michał Markun & Anna Mospan, 2015. "Stationarity and persistence of the term premia in the Polish money market," NBP Working Papers 227, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Pawel Milobedzki, 2010. "The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 81-95.
    4. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India: Evidence from the Post-Liberalization Period (1996-2013). -La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse in India: una analisi empirica sul recente perio," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 275-295.
    5. Riza Demirer & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 687-707, October.
    6. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
    7. Samih Antoine Azar, 2018. "Forward Unbiasedness in the Short End of the Interest Rate Market," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 70-78, February.
    8. Kannan S. Thuraisamy, 2015. "Volatility Dynamics in the Term Structure of Latin American Sovereign International Bonds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 859-866, September.
    9. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Further Empirical Evidence for India (1996-2013) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse: ulteriore evidenza empirica per l’India (1996-2013)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 401-421.
    11. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
    12. Samih Antoine Azar, 2018. "The Pure Expectations Theory and Quarterly Interest Rate Premiums," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(1), pages 161-161, February.
    13. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "Short-rate expectations and term premia: experiences from Hungary and other emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 185-196, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
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