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The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts

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  • Roy H. Webb

Abstract

The idea of rational expectations has revolutionized macroeconomics. Several authors believe that the idea can be easily tested by a simple econometric procedure. This paper, however, presents several reasons for questioning the relevance of such tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy H. Webb, 1987. "The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Nov), pages 3-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1987:i:nov:p:3-9:n:v.73no.6
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    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbrichreview/rev_frbrich198711.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
    2. Frank de Leeuw & Michael J. McKelvey, 1981. "Price Expectations of Business Firms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 299-314.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
    2. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas K. Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 76(Sep), pages 3-26.
    3. Michał Markun & Anna Mospan, 2015. "Stationarity and persistence of the term premia in the Polish money market," NBP Working Papers 227, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    5. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    6. Rik Hafer & Scott E. Hein, 1989. "Comparing futures and survey forecasts of near-term Treasury bill rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-42.
    7. Adrian W. Throop, 1988. "An evaluation of alternative measures of expected inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    8. Tobias F. Rötheli, 1999. "Selling prices and profits: what survey data tell about firms' rationality," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 319-325.
    9. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Raymond E. Owens & Roy H. Webb, 2001. "Using the federal funds futures market to predict monetary policy actions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 69-77.
    11. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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