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Nested Tests of Alternative Term-Structure Theories

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  • Edward J. Kane

Abstract

Controversies in term-structure theory center around the existence and variability of term premia in securities yields. In this paper, the term premium on a default-free n-period bond is defined as the difference between its observable yield to maturity and the average expected per-annum rate of return on an n-period strip of rollover investments in one-period bonds. To test alternative term-structure theories without introducing ex post proxies for expectational variables, this paper uses a set of cross-section interest-rate forecasts collected jointly with Burton Malkiel of Princeton University from a population of large institutional lenders at four different phases of a single interest-rate cycle. Statistical tests strongly confirm the existence of nonzero term premia at each survey date, thereby rejecting the pure-expectations theory of the term structure. Additional tests are unable to reject restrictions implied by the liquidity-premium hypothesis that term premia should be positive and increase with maturity. Finally, contrary to the martingale hypothesis, ex ante term-premium data vary significantly overtime and show a positive association with the level of interest rates.

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  • Edward J. Kane, 1981. "Nested Tests of Alternative Term-Structure Theories," NBER Working Papers 0639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0639
    Note: ME
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    Cited by:

    1. A. DAVID McDONALD & JON D. KENDALL & TIM LA. RIDLEY, 1993. "GARCH‐M Estimates of Variable Risk Premia for 180‐day Australian Bank Bills," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 10-19, March.
    2. Awaludin, Fadhlee & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Sukuk pricing dynamics - factors influencing yield curve of the Malaysian Sukuk," MPRA Paper 66355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "What factors influence the yield curve?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 9(1), pages 28-39, March.
    4. Melino, Angelo, 1988. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 335-366.
    5. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
    6. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    7. Leiderman, Leonardo & Blejer, Mario I., 1983. "New Evidence on the Rational Expectations Theory of the Term Structure: The Case of Argentine Interest Rates," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275370, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1985. "The Substitutability of Debt and Equity Securities," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 197-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jay B. Morrison & David H. Pyle, 1978. "Interest Rate Risk and the Regulation of Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas K. Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 76(Sep), pages 3-26.
    11. Thomas C. Chiang & Douglas R. Kahl, 1991. "Forecasting The Treasury Bill Rate: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 327-336, December.
    12. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1983. "The Substitutability of Debt and Equity Securities," NBER Working Papers 1130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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