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Expectations, Surprises and Treasury Bill Rates: 1960-82

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  • Patric H. Hendershott

Abstract

Changes in six-month bill rates over semiannual periods in the 1960s and 1970s are successfully related to expected changes and to surprises. The latter include unanticipated changes in expected inflation, in the growth of industrial production and base money, and in inflation uncertainty. Estimation of the basic equation through the middle of 1983 does not suggest anychange in structure. Moreover the equation "explains" 60 percent of the extraordinarily high level of real rates since late 1980, largely owing to an excess of unexpected net increases in anticipated inflation over actualin creases.Our estimates provide some support for the expectations theory; there appears to be information content in six-month forward rates. While this content is swamped by the impact of surprises in equations explaining rate changes in terms of forward rates alone, the content is clear when proxies for the surprises are included in the equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott, 1984. "Expectations, Surprises and Treasury Bill Rates: 1960-82," NBER Working Papers 1268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wilcox, James A, 1983. "Why Real Interest Rates Were So Low in the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 44-53, March.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Lawrence Summers, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Long-term Interest Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 153-185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hendershott, Patric H, 1981. "The Decline in Aggregate Share Values: Taxation, Valuation Errors, Risk and Profitability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 909-922, December.
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    5. Peek, Joe, 1982. "Interest Rates, Income Taxes, and Anticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 980-991, December.
    6. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    7. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1979. "Fisher, Phillips, Friedman and the Measured Impact of Inflation on Interest," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 35-52, March.
    8. Patric H. Hendershott & James D. Shilling, 1982. "Capital Allocation and the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981," Public Finance Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 242-273, April.
    9. John H. Makin, 1982. "Money Surprises and Short-Term Interest Rates: Reconciling ContradictoryFindings," NBER Working Papers 0993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas K. Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 76(Sep), pages 3-26.

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