IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/00026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?

Author

Abstract

U.S. oil and natural gas production has grown significantly since 2005, reflecting a move toward shale gas and tight oil extraction. Since 2011, the most productive tight oil and shale gas fields accounted for nearly all of the growth in U.S. energy production, due largely to extensive use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. High energy prices made these costly technologies profitable to apply on a large scale. However, oil prices and rig counts declined sharply in 2014, calling into question whether the boom in U.S. oil production can continue. Nida ak?r Melek examines how falling oil prices, declining rig counts, and gains in rig and well efficiency could affect 2015 oil production. Her analysis suggests production could decline from 0.7 to 8 percent in 2015 despite highly productive new wells and increasing rig efficiency. For production to increase in 2015, rig efficiency and initial well production would need to increase markedly or the decline in rig counts would need to halt.

Suggested Citation

  • Nida Çakır Melek, 2015. "What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 51-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/470/2015-What%20Could%20Lower%20Prices%20Mean%20for%20U.S.%20Oil%20Production%3F.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    2. Leena Grandell & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    4. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    5. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    6. Rezny, Lukas & White, James Buchanan & Maresova, Petra, 2019. "The knowledge economy: Key to sustainable development?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-300.
    7. Alquist, Ron & Guénette, Justin-Damien, 2014. "A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 49-57.
    8. Krumdieck, Susan & Page, Shannon & Dantas, André, 2010. "Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 306-322, June.
    9. Cairns, Robert D. & Calfucura, Enrique, 2012. "OPEC: Market failure or power failure?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 570-580.
    10. Höök, Mikael & Fantazzini, Dean & Angelantoni, André & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy," MPRA Paper 46957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Smith, James L., 2014. "A parsimonious model of tax avoidance and distortions in petroleum exploration and development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 140-157.
    12. Ali Shafiei & Mohammad Ali Ahmadi & Maurice B. Dusseault & Ali Elkamel & Sohrab Zendehboudi & Ioannis Chatzis, 2018. "Data Analytics Techniques for Performance Prediction of Steamflooding in Naturally Fractured Carbonate Reservoirs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
    13. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    14. Ahmadi, Mohammadali & Hou, Qingfeng & Wang, Yuanyuan & Lei, Xuantong & Liu, Benjieming & Chen, Zhangxin, 2023. "Spotlight on reversible emulsification and demulsification of tetradecane-water mixtures using CO2/N2 switchable surfactants: Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    15. Hunt, Julian David & Nascimento, Andreas & Nascimento, Nazem & Vieira, Lara Werncke & Romero, Oldrich Joel, 2022. "Possible pathways for oil and gas companies in a sustainable future: From the perspective of a hydrogen economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Miller, Richard G., 2011. "Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1569-1574, March.
    17. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    18. Troy Davig & Michal Kowalik & Charles S. Morris & Kristen Regehr, 2015. "Bank consolidation and merger activity following the crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 31-49.
    19. Luis Mª Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2017. "Valuation of Real Options in Crude Oil Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    20. Charles F. Mason and Gavin Roberts, 2018. "Price Elasticity of Supply and Productivity: An Analysis of Natural Gas Wells in Wyoming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Oil production;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.