IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v82y2015icp81-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production

Author

Listed:
  • Warrilow, David

Abstract

Twenty-four countries where oil production is in decline were identified. A simple metric of the volatility of oil production on the upslope of their production curves, called decline as a proportion of pre-peak production (or PPPmax), was created. PPPmax was determined for the post-peak countries and plotted as a frequency distribution. PPPmax varied from 0–56%, but was skewed toward the lower part of the range (median 6.2%). As global production is determined by the total contribution of production from all countries, the variation in PPPmax will represent the lower and upper bound of the “bumpiness” of global oil production. It also enables a retrospective approximation of the when global oil production is most likely past its peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:81-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515001160
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
    3. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    4. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    5. [multiple or corporate authorship]., 2014. "CASE annual report 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58040, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    7. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
    8. Owen, Nick A. & Inderwildi, Oliver R. & King, David A., 2010. "The status of conventional world oil reserves--Hype or cause for concern?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4743-4749, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    2. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    3. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    4. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    5. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    6. Lloyd, Bob & Forest, Andrew S., 2010. "The transition to renewables: Can PV provide an answer to the peak oil and climate change challenges?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7378-7394, November.
    7. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 204-214.
    8. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    9. Mads V. Markussen & Hanne Østergård, 2013. "Energy Analysis of the Danish Food Production System: Food-EROI and Fossil Fuel Dependency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Chapman, Ian, 2014. "The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 93-101.
    11. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    12. Chiari, Luca & Zecca, Antonio, 2011. "Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5026-5034, September.
    13. Wiedenhofer, Dominik & Lenzen, Manfred & Steinberger, Julia K., 2013. "Energy requirements of consumption: Urban form, climatic and socio-economic factors, rebounds and their policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 696-707.
    14. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    15. Tiffany L. Fess & James B. Kotcon & Vagner A. Benedito, 2011. "Crop Breeding for Low Input Agriculture: A Sustainable Response to Feed a Growing World Population," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-31, October.
    16. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    18. Enang, Wisdom & Bannister, Chris, 2017. "Modelling and control of hybrid electric vehicles (A comprehensive review)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1210-1239.
    19. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    20. Shkolnikov, E.I. & Zhuk, A.Z. & Vlaskin, M.S., 2011. "Aluminum as energy carrier: Feasibility analysis and current technologies overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4611-4623.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Peak oil; Post-peak; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:81-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.