IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i3p1569-1574.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency

Author

Listed:
  • Miller, Richard G.

Abstract

The IEA was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members, namely the states of the OECD, and to advise those members on sound energy policy. Its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply, however, have wavered, alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. For policy-makers, such inconsistency is difficult to deal with. Firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in IEA forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable, underlying change in the known facts, and we can find no such factual changes reported by the IEA. Secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the IEA's (2008) forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed, and we conclude that they have not. Thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the IEA's assumptions and upon future oil supply. We conclude that all the forecasts made by the IEA appear to be too optimistic throughout this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Richard G., 2011. "Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1569-1574, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1569-1574
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(10)00932-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Escribano, Gonzalo, 2014. "Fragmentación y cooperación en la gobernanza energética global/Fragmentation and Cooperation in Global Energy Governance," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 32, pages 1021-1042, Septiembr.
    2. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    3. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    4. Shastitko, Andrey E. (Шаститко, Андрей) & Golovanova, Svetlana (Голованова, Светлана) & Kurdin, Alexander (Курдин, Александр) & Novikov, Vadim (Новиков, Вадим) & Pavlova, Natalia (Павлова, Наталья), 2014. "Macroeconomic Effects of Competition Restrictions [Макроэкономические Эффекты Ограничений Конкуренции]," Published Papers om18, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    6. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    7. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alquist, Ron & Guénette, Justin-Damien, 2014. "A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 49-57.
    2. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    3. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    4. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    5. Sena, Marcelo Fonseca Monteiro de & Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli & Szklo, Alexandre, 2013. "Will Venezuelan extra-heavy oil be a significant source of petroleum in the next decades?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 51-59.
    6. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    7. Kuchler, Magdalena & Höök, Mikael, 2020. "Fractured visions: Anticipating (un)conventional natural gas in Poland," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Leena Grandell & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    10. Victor Court & Pierre-André Jouvet & Frédéric Lantz, 2015. "Endogenous economic growth, EROI, and transition towards renewable energy," Working Papers 1507, Chaire Economie du climat.
    11. Ron Alquist & Olivier Gervais, 2013. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 35-54, July.
    12. Klaudia Wilk, 2019. "Experimental and Simulation Studies of Energized Fracturing Fluid Efficiency in Tight Gas Formations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Timothy J. Garrett, 2013. "Thermodynamics of long-run economic innovation and growth," Papers 1306.3554, arXiv.org.
    14. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    15. Enang, Wisdom & Bannister, Chris, 2017. "Modelling and control of hybrid electric vehicles (A comprehensive review)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1210-1239.
    16. Mevawala, Chirag & Jiang, Yuan & Bhattacharyya, Debangsu, 2019. "Techno-economic optimization of shale gas to dimethyl ether production processes via direct and indirect synthesis routes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 119-134.
    17. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    18. Nesvold, Erik & Bratvold, Reidar B., 2022. "Debiasing probabilistic oil production forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    19. Rezny, Lukas & White, James Buchanan & Maresova, Petra, 2019. "The knowledge economy: Key to sustainable development?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-300.
    20. Court, Victor & Fizaine, Florian, 2017. "Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 145-159.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1569-1574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.