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Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency

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  • Miller, Richard G.

Abstract

The IEA was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members, namely the states of the OECD, and to advise those members on sound energy policy. Its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply, however, have wavered, alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. For policy-makers, such inconsistency is difficult to deal with. Firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in IEA forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable, underlying change in the known facts, and we can find no such factual changes reported by the IEA. Secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the IEA's (2008) forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed, and we conclude that they have not. Thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the IEA's assumptions and upon future oil supply. We conclude that all the forecasts made by the IEA appear to be too optimistic throughout this period.

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  • Miller, Richard G., 2011. "Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1569-1574, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1569-1574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    2. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    3. Escribano, Gonzalo, 2014. "Fragmentación y cooperación en la gobernanza energética global/Fragmentation and Cooperation in Global Energy Governance," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 32, pages 1021-1042, Septiembr.
    4. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    5. Shastitko, Andrey E. (Шаститко, Андрей) & Golovanova, Svetlana (Голованова, Светлана) & Kurdin, Alexander (Курдин, Александр) & Novikov, Vadim (Новиков, Вадим) & Pavlova, Natalia (Павлова, Наталья), 2014. "Macroeconomic Effects of Competition Restrictions [Макроэкономические Эффекты Ограничений Конкуренции]," Published Papers om18, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    7. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.

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