IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i9p5290-5295.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Sorrell, Steve
  • Speirs, Jamie
  • Bentley, Roger
  • Brandt, Adam
  • Miller, Richard

Abstract

Within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing debate on 'peak oil' has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts. This Communication summarises the main findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:9:p:5290-5295
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(10)00320-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
    3. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    4. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    5. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Shiers, Laura D., 2008. "Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 405-411, October.
    6. Bentley, R.W. & Mannan, S.A. & Wheeler, S.J., 2007. "Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6364-6382, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
    2. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    3. Brecha, Robert J., 2012. "Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 586-597.
    4. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    5. Sena, Marcelo Fonseca Monteiro de & Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli & Szklo, Alexandre, 2013. "Will Venezuelan extra-heavy oil be a significant source of petroleum in the next decades?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 51-59.
    6. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    7. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    8. Lovelace, R. & Beck, S.B.M. & Watson, M. & Wild, A., 2011. "Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2075-2087, April.
    9. Chapman, Ian, 2014. "The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 93-101.
    10. Watcharasukarn, Montira & Page, Shannon & Krumdieck, Susan, 2012. "Virtual reality simulation game approach to investigate transport adaptive capacity for peak oil planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 348-367.
    11. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    12. Dale, Michael & Krumdieck, Susan & Bodger, Pat, 2011. "Net energy yield from production of conventional oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7095-7102.
    13. Allwood, Julian M. & Ashby, Michael F. & Gutowski, Timothy G. & Worrell, Ernst, 2011. "Material efficiency: A white paper," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 362-381.
    14. Dale, M. & Krumdieck, S. & Bodger, P., 2012. "Global energy modelling — A biophysical approach (GEMBA) part 1: An overview of biophysical economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-157.
    15. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    16. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
    17. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    18. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.
    19. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    20. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2016. "Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-203.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:9:p:5290-5295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.