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Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities

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  • Krumdieck, Susan
  • Page, Shannon
  • Dantas, André

Abstract

The issue of a peak in world oil supply has become a mainstream concern over the past several years. The petroleum geology models of post-peak oil production indicate supply declines from 1.5% to 6% per year. Travel requires fuel energy, but current transportation planning models do not include the impacts of constrained fuel supply on private travel demand. This research presents a method to assess the risk to activities due to a constrained fuel supply relative to projected unconstrained travel demand. The method assesses the probability of different levels of fuel supply over a given planning horizon, then calculates impact due to the energy supply not meeting the planning expectations. A new travel demand metric which characterizes trips as essential, necessary, and optional to wellbeing is used in the calculation. A case study explores four different urban forms developed from different future growth options for the urban development strategy of Christchurch, New Zealand to 2041. Probable fuel supply availability was calculated, and the risk to transport activities in the 2041 transport model was assessed. The results showed all the urban forms had significantly reduced trip numbers and lower energy mode distributions from the current planning projections, but the risk to activities differed among the planning options. Density is clearly one of the mitigating factors, but density alone does not provide a solution to reduced energy demand. The method clearly shows how risk to participation in activities is lower for an urban form which has a high degree of human powered and public transport access to multiple options between residential and commercial/industrial/service destinations. This analysis has led to new thinking about adaptation and reorganization of urban forms as a strategy for energy demand reduction rather than just densification.

Suggested Citation

  • Krumdieck, Susan & Page, Shannon & Dantas, André, 2010. "Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 306-322, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:44:y:2010:i:5:p:306-322
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    Cited by:

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    2. Raffaele Salvucci & Stefan Petrović & Kenneth Karlsson & Markus Wråke & Tanu Priya Uteng & Olexandr Balyk, 2019. "Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    4. van Cranenburgh, S. & Chorus, C.G. & van Wee, B., 2014. "Vacation behaviour under high travel cost conditions – A stated preference of revealed preference approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 105-118.
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    6. Patricio Gallardo & Rua Murray & Susan Krumdieck, 2021. "A Sequential Optimization-Simulation Approach for Planning the Transition to the Low Carbon Freight System with Case Study in the North Island of New Zealand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.
    7. Jingzhao Wang & Jincheng Yan & Keyuan Ding & Qian Li & Yehao Liu & Xueliang Liu & Ran Peng, 2022. "A Reflection on the Response to Sudden-Onset Disasters in the Post-Pandemic Era: A Graded Assessment of Urban Transportation Resilience Taking Wuhan, China as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Asarudheen Abdudeen & Mohamed Y. E. Selim & Manigandan Sekar & Mahmoud Elgendi, 2023. "Jatropha’s Rapid Developments and Future Opportunities as a Renewable Source of Biofuel—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, January.
    9. Marcelo Maciel & Luiz Rosa & Fernando Correa & Ursula Maruyama, 2012. "Energy, Pollutant Emissions and Other Negative Externality Savings from Curbing Individual Motorized Transportation (IMT): A Low Cost, Low Technology Scenario Analysis in Brazilian Urban Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, March.
    10. Watcharasukarn, Montira & Page, Shannon & Krumdieck, Susan, 2012. "Virtual reality simulation game approach to investigate transport adaptive capacity for peak oil planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 348-367.
    11. Chen, Xiaohong & Guo, Yingjie & Yang, Chao & Ding, Fangyi & Yuan, Quan, 2021. "Exploring essential travel during COVID-19 quarantine: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 90-97.
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    13. Yang, Chao & Wan, Zhiyang & Yuan, Quan & Zhou, Yang & Sun, Maopeng, 2023. "Travel before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: Exploring factors in essential travel using empirical data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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