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Towards robust technology roadmapping: How to diagnose the vulnerability of organisational plans

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  • Lee, Changyong
  • Kim, Juram
  • Lee, Sungjoo

Abstract

While technology roadmapping has been the subject of many previous studies, a general lack of attention to the issues of uncertainty exists, thus leading to difficulties in consensus-building in the follow-up activity phase of technology roadmapping. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to diagnosing the vulnerability of organisational plans against complex future conditions. For this, first, field anomaly relaxation (FAR) is employed to generate and evaluate future scenarios in a structured manner. Second, analytic network process (ANP) is used to measure the ripple impacts of activities on organisational plans by considering the interaction between activities. Lastly, a vulnerability assessment map is developed to provide a comprehensive and balanced view of organisational plans. The systematic process and quantitative outcomes the proposed approach offers will assist robust technology roadmapping in the face of growing uncertainties associated with the future. A case study of the organisational plan for developing home security systems is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Changyong & Kim, Juram & Lee, Sungjoo, 2016. "Towards robust technology roadmapping: How to diagnose the vulnerability of organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 164-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:111:y:2016:i:c:p:164-175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Margherita Pagani, 2009. "Roadmapping 3G mobile TV : Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling," Post-Print hal-02313094, HAL.
    2. Lee, Changyong & Song, Bomi & Park, Yongtae, 2015. "An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 285-301.
    3. T Ritchey, 2006. "Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(7), pages 792-801, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kheybari, Siamak & Rezaie, Fariba Mahdi & Farazmand, Hadis, 2020. "Analytic network process: An overview of applications," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    2. Chakraborty, Swagata & Nijssen, Edwin J. & Valkenburg, Rianne, 2022. "A systematic review of industry-level applications of technology roadmapping: Evaluation and design propositions for roadmapping practitioners," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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