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The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market

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  • Hansen, Christoph
  • Daim, Tugrul
  • Ernst, Horst
  • Herstatt, Cornelius

Abstract

This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Christoph & Daim, Tugrul & Ernst, Horst & Herstatt, Cornelius, 2016. "The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 196-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:110:y:2016:i:c:p:196-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yujin Jeong & Hyejin Jang & Byungun Yoon, 2021. "Developing a risk-adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 3697-3722, May.
    2. Chi-Yo Huang & Jih-Jeng Huang & You-Ning Chang & Yen-Chu Lin, 2021. "A Fuzzy-MOP-Based Competence Set Expansion Method for Technology Roadmap Definitions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Daim, Tugrul U. & Yoon, Byung-Sung & Lindenberg, John & Grizzi, Robert & Estep, Judith & Oliver, Terry, 2018. "Strategic roadmapping of robotics technologies for the power industry: A multicriteria technology assessment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 49-66.
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    5. Aoun, Joelle & Quaglietta, Egidio & Goverde, Rob M.P., 2023. "Roadmap development for the deployment of virtual coupling in railway signalling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Garza Ramos, Alejandro & Daim, Tugrul & Gaats, Lukas & Hutmacher, Dietmar W. & Hackenberger, David, 2022. "Technology roadmap for the development of a 3D cell culture workstation for a biomedical industry startup," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Yu, Xiang & Zhang, Ben, 2019. "Obtaining advantages from technology revolution: A patent roadmap for competition analysis and strategy planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 273-283.
    8. Nazarenko, Anastasia & Vishnevskiy, Konstantin & Meissner, Dirk & Daim, Tugrul, 2022. "Applying digital technologies in technology roadmapping to overcome individual biased assessments," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Saba Sareminia & Alireza Hasanzadeh & Shaaban Elahi & Gholamali Montazer, 2019. "Developing Technology Roadmapping Combinational Framework by Meta Synthesis Technique," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 1-36, April.
    10. Park, Hyunkyu & Phaal, Rob & Ho, Jae-Yun & O'Sullivan, Eoin, 2020. "Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: A school of thought perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. van Blommestein, Kevin & Daim, Tugrul U. & Cho, Yonghee & Sklar, Paul, 2018. "Structuring financial incentives for residential solar electric systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 28-40.

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