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Roadmapping 3G mobile TV : Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling

Author

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  • Margherita Pagani

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

Abstract

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Pagani, 2009. "Roadmapping 3G mobile TV : Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling," Post-Print hal-02313094, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02313094
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Yonghee & Yoon, Seong-Pil & Kim, Karp-Soo, 2016. "An industrial technology roadmap for supporting public R&D planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    3. Thomas Moellers & Lars von der Burg & Bastian Bansemir & Max Pretzl & Oliver Gassmann, 2019. "System dynamics for corporate business model innovation," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 29(3), pages 387-406, September.
    4. Yu, Xiang & Zhang, Ben, 2019. "Obtaining advantages from technology revolution: A patent roadmap for competition analysis and strategy planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 273-283.
    5. Juan Carlos Vergara-Schmalbach & Tomás Fontalvo Herrera & José Morelos Gómez, 2014. "La planeación por escenarios aplicada sobre políticas urbanas: el caso del mercado central de Cartagena (Colombia)," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 0(1), pages 23-33, June.
    6. Lee, Changyong & Song, Bomi & Park, Yongtae, 2015. "An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 285-301.
    7. Basma Hamrouni & Abdelhabib Bourouis & Ahmed Korichi & Mohsen Brahmi, 2021. "Explainable Ontology-Based Intelligent Decision Support System for Business Model Design and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-28, September.
    8. Raele, Ricardo & Boaventura, João Mauricio Gama & Fischmann, Adalberto Américo & Sarturi, Greici, 2014. "Scenarios for the second generation ethanol in Brazil," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 205-223.
    9. Hansen, Christoph & Daim, Tugrul & Ernst, Horst & Herstatt, Cornelius, 2016. "The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 196-212.
    10. Saba Sareminia & Alireza Hasanzadeh & Shaaban Elahi & Gholamali Montazer, 2019. "Developing Technology Roadmapping Combinational Framework by Meta Synthesis Technique," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 1-36, April.
    11. Dominik Dellermann & Nikolaus Lipusch & Philipp Ebel & Jan Marco Leimeister, 2019. "Design principles for a hybrid intelligence decision support system for business model validation," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 29(3), pages 423-441, September.
    12. Yuskevich, Ilya & Hein, Andreas Makoto & Amokrane-Ferka, Kahina & Doufene, Abdelkrim & Jankovic, Marija, 2021. "A metamodel of an informational structure for model-based technology roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    13. Panula-Ontto, Juha & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Kaivo-oja, Jari & O'Mahony, Tadhg & Vehmas, Jarmo & Valkealahti, Seppo & Björkqvist, Tomas & Korpela, Timo & Järventausta, Pertti & Majanne, Yrjö & Kojo, Matti , 2018. "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 504-513.
    14. de Alcantara, Douglas Pedro & Martens, Mauro Luiz, 2019. "Technology Roadmapping (TRM): a systematic review of the literature focusing on models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 127-138.
    15. Lee, Changyong & Kim, Juram & Lee, Sungjoo, 2016. "Towards robust technology roadmapping: How to diagnose the vulnerability of organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 164-175.
    16. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
    17. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    18. Juan Carlos Vergara-Schmalbach & Tomás Fontalvo Herrera & José Morelos Gómez, 2014. "La planeación por escenarios aplicada sobre políticas urbanas: el caso del mercado central de Cartagena (Colombia)," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 0(1), pages 23-33, June.
    19. Panula-Ontto, Juha, 2019. "The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 292-308.

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