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Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Author

Listed:
  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (University of Denver
    Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Timothy R. Carter

    (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

  • Kristie Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Paula A. Harrison

    (UK Centre of Ecology & Hydrology)

  • Eric Kemp-Benedict

    (Stockholm Environment Institute)

  • Kasper Kok

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Benjamin L. Preston

    (RAND Corporation)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Jana Sillmann

    (Center for International Climate Research (CICERO))

  • Bas J. Ruijven

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
    Utrecht University)

  • David Carlisle

    (University of Denver)

  • Cecilia Conde

    (National Autonomous University of Mexico (CCA-UNAM))

  • Jan Fuglestvedt

    (Center for International Climate Research (CICERO))

  • Carole Green

    (University of Denver)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Ritsumeikan University)

  • Julia Leininger

    (German Development Institute)

  • Seth Monteith

    (ClimateWorks Foundation)

  • Ramon Pichs-Madruga

    (Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM))

Abstract

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian C. O’Neill & Timothy R. Carter & Kristie Ebi & Paula A. Harrison & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Kasper Kok & Elmar Kriegler & Benjamin L. Preston & Keywan Riahi & Jana Sillmann & Bas J. Ruijven & Detlef, 2020. "Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1074-1084, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00952-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Koch, Johannes & Leimbach, Marian, 2023. "SSP economic growth projections: Major changes of key drivers in integrated assessment modelling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    2. Kılkış, Şiir, 2022. "Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Youtang Zhang & Hagos Mesfin Berhe, 2022. "The Impact of Green Investment and Green Marketing on Business Performance: The Mediation Role of Corporate Social Responsibility in Ethiopia’s Chinese Textile Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Skea, Jim & van Diemen, Renée & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Khourdajie, Alaa Al, 2021. "Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Daigneault, Adam & Simons-Legaard, Erin & Weiskittel, Aaron, 2024. "Tradeoffs and synergies of optimized management for maximizing carbon sequestration across complex landscapes and diverse ecosystem services," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Felipe Romero-Perdomo & Juan David Carvajalino-Umaña & Jaime Leonardo Moreno-Gallego & Natalia Ardila & Miguel Ángel González-Curbelo, 2022. "Research Trends on Climate Change and Circular Economy from a Knowledge Mapping Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Jane Spiteri, 2023. "Approaches to Foster Young Children’s Engagement with Climate Action: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Youngeun Kang & Gyoungju Lee, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Population Projections within the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Seoul, Korea, Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Chen, Peipei & Wu, Yi & Zhong, Honglin & Long, Yin & Meng, Jing, 2022. "Exploring household emission patterns and driving factors in Japan using machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    10. Connor, Jeffery D. & Summers, David & Regan, Courtney & Abbott, Hayley & Van Der Linden, Leon & Frizenschaf, Jacqueline, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis in economic evaluation of payments for water and carbon ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Tobias Junne & Karl-Kiên Cao & Kim Kira Miskiw & Heidi Hottenroth & Tobias Naegler, 2021. "Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-26, February.
    12. Chuang Liu & Huiyi Yang & Kate Gongadze & Paul Harris & Mingbin Huang & Lianhai Wu, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) and Maize ( Zea mays ) and Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Northern China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-12, April.
    13. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    14. Anqi Yang & Shudong Yang, 2023. "Negative Sentiment Modeling and Public Legal Liability from Urban Green Space: A Framework for Policy Action in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, March.
    15. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    16. Kılkış, Şiir, 2023. "Integrated urban scenarios of emissions, land use efficiency and benchmarking for climate neutrality and sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    17. Pierre-Antoine Muselli & Jean-Nicolas Antoniotti & Marc Muselli, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Gaseous Hydrogen (H 2 ) Potential Produced by Photovoltaic Electrolysis for Stand-Alone or Grid Applications in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Tayyeh, Halah Kadhim & Mohammed, Ruqayah, 2024. "Vulnerability and resilience of hydropower generation under climate change scenarios: Haditha dam reservoir case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    19. Benjamin K. Sovacool & Chad M. Baum & Sean Low, 2022. "Determining our climate policy future: expert opinions about negative emissions and solar radiation management pathways," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-50, December.
    20. Sonali Shukla McDermid & Matthew Hayek & Dale W. Jamieson & Galina Hale & David Kanter, 2023. "Research needs for a food system transition," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-15, April.
    21. Chengjun Yuan & Yingfang Weng & Kangning Xiong & Li Rong, 2024. "Projections of Land Use Change and Water Supply–Demand Assessment Based on Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Case Study of Guizhou Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, February.

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