IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v15y2011i6p3051-3073.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An integrated approach for climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. Part II. Case study

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Y.P.
  • Huang, G.H.
  • Tan, Q.
  • Liu, L.

Abstract

In this study, a large-scale integrated modeling system (IMS) was applied for supporting climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning of the energy management system in the Province of Manitoba, Canada. The system was based on the integration of the fuzzy-interval inference method (FIIM), inexact energy model (IEM), and uncertainty analysis. Issues concerning energy management systems planning for cost-effective adaptation strategies under climate change were generated. Decisions of energy allocation, power generation and facility expansion within a multi-facility, multi-option, and multi-period context were obtained. Tradeoffs among system cost, climate change impact, system reliability and resilience were analyzed. The obtained solutions would be helpful for the adjustment or justification of the existing allocation patterns of energy resources and services, the long-term planning of renewable energy utilization, the formulation of local policies regarding energy consumption, economic development, and energy structure, the analysis of interactions among economic cost, system efficiency, emission mitigation, and energy-supply security, and the investigation of system vulnerability and responses towards various levels of impacts under climate change. Thus, IMS could provide an effective technique for decision makers in examining and visualizing integrated impacts of climate change on energy management systems as well as identifying desired adaptation strategies under multiple levels of uncertainties (i.e., the uncertainties associated not only with climate change impact analysis, but also with adaptation planning).

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Tan, Q. & Liu, L., 2011. "An integrated approach for climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. Part II. Case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3051-3073, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:15:y:2011:i:6:p:3051-3073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032111001146
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Islam, Mazharul & Fartaj, Amir & Ting, David S. -K., 2004. "Current utilization and future prospects of emerging renewable energy applications in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 493-519, December.
    2. Mansur, Erin T. & Mendelsohn, Robert & Morrison, Wendy, 2008. "Climate change adaptation: A study of fuel choice and consumption in the US energy sector," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 175-193, March.
    3. Capizzi, G. & Tina, G., 2007. "Long-term operation optimization of integrated generation systems by fuzzy logic-based management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1047-1054.
    4. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    5. Ingham, Alan & Ma, Jie & Ulph, Alistair, 2007. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5354-5369, November.
    6. Thompson, Shirley & Duggirala, Bhanu, 2009. "The feasibility of renewable energies at an off-grid community in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2740-2745, December.
    7. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Lin, Q.G. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Community-scale renewable energy systems planning under uncertainty--An interval chance-constrained programming approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 721-735, May.
    8. Breslow, Paul B. & Sailor, David J., 2002. "Vulnerability of wind power resources to climate change in the continental United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 585-598.
    9. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    10. Allen, Myles R. & Christensen, John M., 1990. "Climate change and the need for a new energy agenda," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-24.
    11. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 480-495, April.
    12. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    13. Simeonova, Katja, 1997. "Policies and measures to address climate change in Central and Eastern European Countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 56(3-4), pages 445-461, March.
    14. Sutherland, Ronald J, 1998. "The impact of potential climate change commitments on six industries in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 765-776, August.
    15. Peramunetilleke, T.B., 1982. "Climate defeats energy planners in Sri Lanka," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 235-235.
    16. Ruth, Matthias & Lin, Ai-Chen, 2006. "Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2820-2833, November.
    17. West, James Jason & Hope, Chris & Lane, Stuart N, 1997. "Climate change and energy policy : The impacts and implications of aerosols," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 923-939, September.
    18. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xingwei & Cai, Yanpeng & Dai, Chao, 2014. "Evaluating China's biomass power production investment based on a policy benefit real options model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 751-761.
    2. Tian, Chuyin & Huang, Guohe & Xie, Yulei, 2021. "Systematic evaluation for hydropower exploitation rationality in hydro-dominant area: A case study of Sichuan Province, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1096-1111.
    3. Annika Styczynski & Jedamiah Wolf & Somdatta Tah & Arnab Bose, 2014. "When decision-making processes fail: an argument for robust climate adaptation planning in the face of uncertainty," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 478-491, December.
    4. Hu, Qing & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Huang, Ying, 2011. "Feasibility-based inexact fuzzy programming for electric power generation systems planning under dual uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4642-4654.
    5. Zhang, Qi & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N., 2013. "An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1424-1437.
    6. Binglong Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Xin’An Yin & Qian Tan & Yan Hao, 2017. "An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1665-1694, March.
    7. Trotter, Philipp A. & Cooper, Nathanial J. & Wilson, Peter R., 2019. "A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 288-312.
    8. Ur Rehman, Syed Aziz & Cai, Yanpeng & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Walasai, Gordhan Das & Nafees, Mohammad, 2019. "Energy-environment-economy nexus in Pakistan: Lessons from a PAK-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 200-211.
    9. Dong, Cong & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Cheng, Guanhui & Tan, Qian, 2016. "Bayesian interval robust optimization for sustainable energy system planning in Qiqihar City, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 357-376.
    10. Seddiki, Mohammed & Bennadji, Amar, 2019. "Multi-criteria evaluation of renewable energy alternatives for electricity generation in a residential building," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 101-117.
    11. Dai, C. & Cai, Y.P. & Ren, W. & Xie, Y.F. & Guo, H.C., 2016. "Identification of optimal placements of best management practices through an interval-fuzzy possibilistic programming model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 108-121.
    12. Suganthi, L. & Iniyan, S. & Samuel, Anand A., 2015. "Applications of fuzzy logic in renewable energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 585-607.
    13. Lu, Shibao & Zhang, Xiaoling & Bao, Haijun & Skitmore, Martin, 2016. "Review of social water cycle research in a changing environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 132-140.
    14. Yang, Perry Pei-Ju & Quan, Steven Jige & Castro-Lacouture, Daniel & Stuart, Ben J., 2018. "A Geodesign method for managing a closed-loop urban system through algae cultivation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1372-1382.
    15. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2013. "Planning carbon emission trading for Beijing's electric power systems under dual uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 113-128.
    16. Cai, Yanpeng & Yue, Wencong & Xu, Linyu & Yang, Zhifeng & Rong, Qiangqiang, 2016. "Sustainable urban water resources management considering life-cycle environmental impacts of water utilization under uncertainty," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-40.
    17. Jin, S.W. & Li, Y.P. & Nie, S. & Sun, J., 2017. "The potential role of carbon capture and storage technology in sustainable electric-power systems under multiple uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 467-480.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Tan, Q. & Yang, Z.F., 2011. "An integrated approach for climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. Part I: Methodology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 2779-2790, August.
    2. Jane Ebinger & Walter Vergara, 2011. "Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2271.
    3. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    4. Yau, Y.H. & Pean, H.L., 2011. "The climate change impact on air conditioner system and reliability in Malaysia—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4939-4949.
    5. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Mideksa, Torben K. & Kallbekken, Steffen, 2010. "The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3579-3585, July.
    7. Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2019. "Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 365-410, February.
    8. Matthew Ranson & Lauren Morris & Alex Kats-Rubin, 2014. "Climate Change and Space Heating Energy Demand: A Review of the Literature," NCEE Working Paper Series 201407, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Dec 2014.
    9. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    10. François Cohen & Matthieu Glachant & Magnus Söderberg, 2017. "The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector," Working Papers hal-01695171, HAL.
    11. Lucy Cradden & Gareth Harrison & John Chick, 2012. "Will climate change impact on wind power development in the UK?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 837-852, December.
    12. Gonçalves-Ageitos, María & Barrera-Escoda, Antoni & Baldasano, Jose M. & Cunillera, Jordi, 2015. "Modelling wind resources in climate change scenarios in complex terrains," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 670-678.
    13. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    14. Wang, Bing & Ke, Ruo-Yu & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "China׳s regional assessment of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-195.
    15. Yong Zeng & Yanpeng Cai & Guohe Huang & Jing Dai, 2011. "A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-33, October.
    16. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    17. Toparlar, Y. & Blocken, B. & Maiheu, B. & van Heijst, G.J.F., 2018. "Impact of urban microclimate on summertime building cooling demand: A parametric analysis for Antwerp, Belgium," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 852-872.
    18. Dong, C. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Liu, Y., 2012. "An inexact optimization modeling approach for supporting energy systems planning and air pollution mitigation in Beijing city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 673-688.
    19. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    20. Li, Y.F. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, X., 2010. "Energy and environmental systems planning under uncertainty--An inexact fuzzy-stochastic programming approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3189-3211, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:15:y:2011:i:6:p:3051-3073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.