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Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel C. Steinberg

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Bryan K. Mignone

    (ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company)

  • Jordan Macknick

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Yinong Sun

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Kelly Eurek

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Andrew Badger

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Ben Livneh

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Kristen Averyt

    (Desert Research Institute)

Abstract

Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model—the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)—this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:158:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02506-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6
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    2. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    3. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    4. Cohen, S.M. & Iyer, G.C. & Brown, M. & Macknick, J. & Wise, M. & Binsted, M. & Voisin, N. & Rice, J. & Hejazi, M., 2021. "How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Fanny Groundstroem & Sirkku Juhola, 2021. "Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-48, October.
    6. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

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