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An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

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  • Binglong Wang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Yanpeng Cai

    (Beijing Normal University
    University of Regina
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Xin’An Yin

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Qian Tan

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Yan Hao

    (Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

An integrated approach of system dynamics (SD), orthogonal experimental design (OED) and inexact optimization modeling was proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The developed method adopted a combination of SD and OED to identify key scenarios within multiple factors, through which interval solutions for water demands could be obtained as input data for consequential optimization modeling. Also, optimal schemes could be obtained in the combination of inexact two-stage stochastic programming and credibility constrained programming. The developed method was applied to a real-world case study for supporting allocation of multiple-source water resources to multiple users in Dalian city within a multi-year context. The results indicated that a lower credibility-satisfaction level would generate higher allocation efficiency, a higher system benefit and a lower system violation risk. The developed model could successfully reflect and address the variety of uncertainties through provision of credibility levels, which corresponds to the decision makers’ preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and violation risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Binglong Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Xin’An Yin & Qian Tan & Yan Hao, 2017. "An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1665-1694, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1608-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1608-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Zongzhi Wang & Ailing Ye & Kelin Liu & Liting Tan, 2021. "Optimal Model of Desalination Planning Under Uncertainties in a Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3277-3295, August.
    3. Aida Hosseini Baghanam & Arshia Jedary Seifi & Ali Sheikhbabaei & Yousef Hassanzadeh & Mohsen Besharat & Esmaeil Asadi, 2022. "Policy-Making toward Integrated Water Resources Management of Zarrine River Basin via System Dynamics Approach under Climate Change Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Yutong Tian & Chunhui Li & Yujun Yi & Xuan Wang & Anping Shu, 2020. "Dynamic Model of a Sustainable Water Resources Utilization System with Coupled Water Quality and Quantity in Tianjin City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.

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