IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v86y2009i4p480-495.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Y.P.
  • Huang, G.H.
  • Yang, Z.F.
  • Tan, Q.

Abstract

Management of energy resources is crucial for many regions throughout the world. Many economic, environmental and political factors are having significant effects on energy management practices, leading to a variety of uncertainties in relevant decision making. The objective of this research is to identify optimal strategies in the planning of energy management systems under multiple uncertainties through the development of a fuzzy-random interval programming (FRIP) model. The method is based on an integration of the existing interval linear programming (ILP), superiority-inferiority-based fuzzy-stochastic programming (SI-FSP) and mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Such a FRIP model allows multiple uncertainties presented as interval values, possibilistic and probabilistic distributions, as well as their combinations within a general optimization framework. It can also be used for facilitating capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multi-period and multi-option context. Complexities in energy management systems can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method has then been applied to a case of long-term energy management planning for a region with three cities. Useful solutions for the planning of energy management systems were generated. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained. They could be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints. The solutions can also provide desired energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security. Tradeoffs between system costs and constraint-violation risks could be successfully tackled, i.e., higher costs will increase system stability, while a desire for lower system costs will run into a risk of potential instability of the management system. Moreover, multiple uncertainties existing in the planning of energy management systems can be effectively addressed, improving robustness of the existing optimization methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 480-495, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:86:y:2009:i:4:p:480-495
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(08)00232-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quaddus, M.A. & Goh, T.N., 1985. "Electric power generation expansion: Planning with multiple objectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 301-319.
    2. Albrecht, Johan, 2007. "The future role of photovoltaics: A learning curve versus portfolio perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2296-2304, April.
    3. Huang, G. H. & Baetz, B. W. & Patry, G. G., 1995. "Grey fuzzy integer programming: An application to regional waste management planning under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 17-38, March.
    4. Bruglieri, Maurizio & Liberti, Leo, 2008. "Optimal running and planning of a biomass-based energy production process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2430-2438, July.
    5. Limmeechokchai, B. & Chungpaibulpatana, S., 2001. "Application of cool storage air-conditioning in the commercial sector: an integrated resource planning approach for power capacity expansion planning and emission reduction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 289-300, March.
    6. Howells, M. I. & Alfstad, T. & Victor, D. G. & Goldstein, G. & Remme, U., 2005. "A model of household energy services in a low-income rural African village," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(14), pages 1833-1851, September.
    7. Wene, C.-O., 1996. "Energy-economy analysis: Linking the macroeconomic and systems engineering approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 809-824.
    8. Asif, M. & Muneer, T., 2007. "Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(7), pages 1388-1413, September.
    9. Rong, Aiying & Lahdelma, Risto, 2007. "An effective heuristic for combined heat-and-power production planning with power ramp constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 307-325, March.
    10. Berglund, Christer & Soderholm, Patrik, 2006. "Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1344-1356, August.
    11. Henning, Dag & Amiri, Shahnaz & Holmgren, Kristina, 2006. "Modelling and optimisation of electricity, steam and district heating production for a local Swedish utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 1224-1247, December.
    12. Thorin, Eva & Brand, Heike & Weber, Christoph, 2005. "Long-term optimization of cogeneration systems in a competitive market environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 152-169, June.
    13. Turton, Hal & Barreto, Leonardo, 2006. "Long-term security of energy supply and climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2232-2250, October.
    14. Grohnheit, Poul Erik & Gram Mortensen, Bent Ole, 2003. "Competition in the market for space heating. District heating as the infrastructure for competition among fuels and technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 817-826, July.
    15. Birge, John R. & Louveaux, Francois V., 1988. "A multicut algorithm for two-stage stochastic linear programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 384-392, March.
    16. Akisawa, A & Kang, Y.T & Shimazaki, Y & Kashiwagi, T, 1999. "Environmentally friendly energy system models using material circulation and energy cascade—the optimization work," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 561-578.
    17. Khella, Anwar Farid Agaybi, 1997. "Egypt : Energy planning policies with environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 105-115, January.
    18. Huang, G. H., 1998. "A hybrid inexact-stochastic water management model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 137-158, May.
    19. Nfah, E.M. & Ngundam, J.M. & Tchinda, R., 2007. "Modelling of solar/diesel/battery hybrid power systems for far-north Cameroon," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 832-844.
    20. Thomas Unger & Tomas Ekvall, 2003. "Benefits from increased cooperation and energy trade under CO 2 commitments-The Nordic case," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 279-294, September.
    21. Antunes, C.Henggeler & Martins, A.Gomes & Brito, Isabel Sofia, 2004. "A multiple objective mixed integer linear programming model for power generation expansion planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 613-627.
    22. Zoulias, E.I. & Lymberopoulos, N., 2007. "Techno-economic analysis of the integration of hydrogen energy technologies in renewable energy-based stand-alone power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-696.
    23. Mavrotas, George & Diakoulaki, Danae & Florios, Kostas & Georgiou, Paraskevas, 2008. "A mathematical programming framework for energy planning in services' sector buildings under uncertainty in load demand: The case of a hospital in Athens," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2415-2429, July.
    24. Möllersten, K. & Yan, J. & Westermark, M., 2003. "Potential and cost-effectiveness of CO2 reductions through energy measures in Swedish pulp and paper mills," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 691-710.
    25. Blesl, Markus & Das, Anjana & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe, 2007. "Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 772-785, February.
    26. Huang, Guo H. & Baetz, Brian W. & Patry, Gilles G., 1995. "Grey integer programming: An application to waste management planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 594-620, June.
    27. Nilsson, J. Stenlund & Mårtensson, A., 2003. "Municipal energy-planning and development of local energy-systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 179-187, September.
    28. Cormio, C. & Dicorato, M. & Minoia, A. & Trovato, M., 2003. "A regional energy planning methodology including renewable energy sources and environmental constraints," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 99-130, April.
    29. Maybee, John S. & Randolph, Paul H. & Uri, Noel D., 1981. "Planning available capacity in electrical power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 23-31, September.
    30. Islam, Sardar M.N., 1997. "Sustainable economic developments in the australian energy sector: Findings of the australian energy planning system optimization model (AEPSOM)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 229-238, September.
    31. Yasumasa Fujii & Kenji Yamaji, 1998. "Assessment of technological options in the global energy system for limiting the atmospheric CO 2 concentration," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 1(2), pages 113-139, December.
    32. Wene, Clas-Otto & Ryden, Bo, 1988. "A comprehensive energy model in the municipal energy planning process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 212-222, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Lin, Q.G. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Community-scale renewable energy systems planning under uncertainty--An interval chance-constrained programming approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 721-735, May.
    2. Liu, Y. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Cheng, G.H. & Niu, Y.T. & An, K., 2009. "Development of an inexact optimization model for coupled coal and power management in North China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4345-4363, November.
    3. Yong Zeng & Yanpeng Cai & Guohe Huang & Jing Dai, 2011. "A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-33, October.
    4. Chen, C. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2016. "Interval-fuzzy municipal-scale energy model for identification of optimal strategies for energy management – A case study of Tianjin, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1161-1177.
    5. Ye Liu & Guohe Huang & Yanpeng Cai & Cong Dong, 2011. "An Inexact Mix-Integer Two-Stage Linear Programming Model for Supporting the Management of a Low-Carbon Energy System in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-30, October.
    6. Zhou, Xiong & Huang, Guohe & Zhu, Hua & Chen, Jiapei & Xu, Jinliang, 2015. "Chance-constrained two-stage fractional optimization for planning regional energy systems in British Columbia, Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 663-677.
    7. Hu, Qing & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Huang, Ying, 2011. "Feasibility-based inexact fuzzy programming for electric power generation systems planning under dual uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4642-4654.
    8. Zhu, Y. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P. & He, L. & Zhang, X.X., 2011. "An interval full-infinite mixed-integer programming method for planning municipal energy systems - A case study of Beijing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(8), pages 2846-2862, August.
    9. Dong, C. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Liu, Y., 2012. "An inexact optimization modeling approach for supporting energy systems planning and air pollution mitigation in Beijing city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 673-688.
    10. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Tan, Q. & Yang, Z.F., 2009. "Planning of community-scale renewable energy management systems in a mixed stochastic and fuzzy environment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1833-1847.
    11. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2012. "Planning municipal-scale energy systems under functional interval uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-84.
    12. Zhu, H. & Huang, W.W. & Huang, G.H., 2014. "Planning of regional energy systems: An inexact mixed-integer fractional programming model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 500-514.
    13. Jin, L. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Wang, L. & Wu, T., 2015. "A pseudo-optimal inexact stochastic interval T2 fuzzy sets approach for energy and environmental systems planning under uncertainty: A case study for Xiamen City of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 71-90.
    14. Chen, Yizhong & Lu, Hongwei & Li, Jing & Huang, Guohe & He, Li, 2016. "Regional planning of new-energy systems within multi-period and multi-option contexts: A case study of Fengtai, Beijing, China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 356-372.
    15. Chen, C. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhu, Y., 2012. "An inexact robust nonlinear optimization method for energy systems planning under uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 55-66.
    16. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Nie, S.L. & Qin, X.S., 2007. "ITCLP: An inexact two-stage chance-constrained program for planning waste management systems," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 284-307.
    17. Sun, Y. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P., 2010. "ICQSWM: An inexact chance-constrained quadratic solid waste management model," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 54(10), pages 641-657.
    18. Q. Lin & G. Huang, 2011. "Interval-fuzzy stochastic optimization for regional energy systems planning and greenhouse-gas emission management under uncertainty—a case study for the Province of Ontario, Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 353-378, January.
    19. Bazmi, Aqeel Ahmed & Zahedi, Gholamreza, 2011. "Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3480-3500.
    20. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, X., 2011. "An interval-valued minimax-regret analysis approach for the identification of optimal greenhouse-gas abatement strategies under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4313-4324, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:86:y:2009:i:4:p:480-495. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.